840
FXUS64 KAMA 150531
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1231 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
- CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EACH EVENING.
- INCREASED THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE PRESENT IN
THE NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES AS ACTIVITY CONTINUE TO REMAIN
FOCUSED THERE.
- DRIER AND HOTTER CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN NEXT WEEK WITH
WIDESPREAD TRIPLE-DIGIT TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
WITH PRESENT AGREEMENT OF MODELS SEEING THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MORE CENTERED TO OUR EAST TODAY, THE COMBINED
PANHANDLES CONTINUES TO SEE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. FOR TODAY IN PARTICULAR, MULTIPLE CAMS HAVE SEEN A
WEAK SHORT-WAVE TRY TO CLIP THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THIS WAVE WILL AID IN MAKING STORM
COVERAGE BIT MORE EXPANSIVE FOR THE NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES WITH
SOME CAMS EVENING GIVING IT THE POTENTIAL TO FORCE SOME MORE
SOUTHERLY STORMS INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. WHAT HAS BEEN A BIT
MORE BACK AND FORTH, HOWEVER, IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE BOUNDARY
YESTERDAY TO STILL BE IN PLAY. PRESENT RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE SEEN
IT SHARPEN ENOUGH TO START ISOLATED STORMS IN THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLES AHEAD OF THE SHORT-WAVE, BUT THIS HAS ONLY BEEN IN A
HAND FULL OF RUNS. REGARDLESS, AGREEMENT IS STILL STRONG THAT THIS
SHORT-WAVE WILL LOOK TO FORM A WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT WILL GET
HUNG UP ACROSS THE PANHANDLES RESULTING IN LINGER SHOWERS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THIS LOW DOES
LOOK TO BEGIN PUSHING OFF, BUT NOT BEFORE AIDING IN ONE MORE ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, CURRENT CAMS HAVE CONTINUE TO GIVE THE BETTER
SEVERE POTENTIAL TO TODAY. AS IT STANDS CURRENT RUNS ARE PLACING
OUR BEST CHANCES IN THE NORTHWEST WITH AROUND 1500 TO NEAR 2000
J/KG OF MLCAPE. THANKS IN PART TO THE SHORT WAVE, THESE VALUES ARE
ALSO WORKING WITH SOME EFFECTIVE BULK WIND SHEAR AVERAGING AROUND
20 TO 30 KT. WHILE HOT TEMPERATURES MAY FAVOR MORE MELTING, THIS
COMBINATION WOULD MAKE HAIL UPWARDS OF 1.5 INCHES NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. HOWEVER, THE BIGGER THREAT WILL REMAIN ON DCAPE VALUES
UPWARDS OF 1500 TO 1600 J/KG, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 70 MPH, ESPECIALLY THE FURTHER
SOUTH STORMS MANAGE TO START. ON THE HYDRO SIDE OF THESE IMPACTS,
PRESENT CAMS HAVE SUGGEST INCREASED PWAT VALUES WITH SOME AREAS
HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO SEE VALUES REACH NEAR THE 1.5 INCH MARK.
SHOULD VALUES LIKE THIS BE ACHIEVED THEN IT IS POSSIBLE TO SEE
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IF VALUES CAN CARRYOVER INTO
SUNDAY WHEN GROUND COULD BE MORE FLOOD PRONE. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR
TEMPERATURES GET A SLIGHT BREAK WITH AFTERNOON HIGH STARTING TO
DIP BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
THE START OF NEXT WEEK HAS PRESENT MODEL AGREEMENT SEEING THE
CURRENT UPPER-LEVEL HIGH RETROGRADE BACK WEST DURING THE COURSE OF
THE WEEK. THIS RETROGRADE WILL EVENTUALLY SEE SAID HIGH BACK OVER
THE PANHANDLES RESULTING IN A RETURN OF THE MORE WIDESPREAD
TRIPLE-DIGIT TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL ALSO SEE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION START TO DECREASE WITH CHANCES MONDAY ONLY AROUND 10
TO 30 PERCENT AND TUESDAY NOW DROPPING BELOW 10 PERCENT. HOWEVER,
PRESENT GFS RUNS HAVE CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A NEW
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK THAT COULD
PROVE TO PROVIDE US WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BETTER CHANCES AT
PRECIPITATION. PRESENT ENSEMBLES HAVE ALSO PICKED UP ON THE IDEA
WITH CURRENT NBM NOW GIVING US A 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING
PRECIPITATION STARTING WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT THIS TROUGH
HAS BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT RUNS, CONFIDENCE
IS NOT TOO HIGH ON THE IDEA JUST YET.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
AS OF LATE TONIGHT PRESENT RADAR AND SATELLITE HAS SEEN STORMS
OVER PERFORM FROM THE CAMS RUNS. THIS HAS LEAD TO HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING PRESENT OVER BOTH
KDHT AND KGUY TO AT LEAST 09 UTC. BEYOND THAT TIMEFRAME CONDITIONS
SHOULD START TO QUIET DOWN, WITH ONLY SOME LOW CONFIDENCE
CONCERNS OF A LOW-LEVEL CLOUD DECK BUILDING OVER KGUY REMAINING.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO BUILD BACK IN PAST SUNRISE
SATURDAY BEFORE OUR NEXT ROUND OF STORMS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
LATER THAT EVENING.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ317.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
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