828
FXUS64 KAMA 160551
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1251 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHICH COULD LEAD TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
- HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK IN TO START NEXT WEEK
RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD TRIPLE-DIGIT
TEMPERATURES.
- A NEW SYSTEM MOVING INTO OUR EAST MID-WEEK MAY RESULT IN
SIMILAR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS OPPORTUNITY AS LAST WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
PRESENT CAMS CONTINUE TO SEE THE PANHANDLES STAY ACTIVE TODAY AS
WE LOOK TO DEAL WITH TWO DIFFERENT LIFTING MECHANISM DRIVING STORM
PRODUCTION IN OUR SOUTH AND NORTHWEST. THE FIRST OF THESE
MECHANISM LOOKS TO BE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT COULD BE OUR
KEY TO SEE STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLES. THE ISSUE WITH THIS MECHANISM, HOWEVER, IS GOING
TO BE ON THE FINAL PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY, WHICH WILL EFFECT
HOW FAR SOUTH STORM WILL ACTUALLY START. OVERNIGHT CAMS HAVE
SUGGEST THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SETTLE A COUNTY OR SO SOUTH
OUR CWA, WHICH DOES BRING BETTER CHANCES OF ACTIVITY REACHING THE
I-40 CORRIDOR. WHILE THIS HAS BEEN A MORE RECENT TREND, IT DOES
LINE UP BETTER WITH WHAT RADAR IMAGERY SAW LAST NIGHT. GIVEN THIS,
WE HAVE DECIDED TO SPREAD OUR CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FURTHER
SOUTH THEN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. AS FOR THE SECOND LIFTING
MECHANISM, MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY, LOOK FOR A NEW SHORT-WAVE TO AID
IN FORCING ACTIVITY OFF THE SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE AND INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES. AS FOR IMPACTS, EXPECTED INSTABILITY IS
ROUGHLY AS GOOD AS IT WAS YESTERDAY WITH AREAS WORKING WITH AROUND
1500 TO 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. HOWEVER, A DISTINCT LACK OF WIND
SHEAR FOR TOMORROW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MOST OF THESE STORMS MORE
VERTICAL MAKING IT HARD TO STAY ORGANIZED LONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
MUCH IN TERMS OF HAIL. INSTEAD CONCERN WILL BE MORE FOCUSED ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. AS IT
STANDS, CURRENT CAMS ARE SEEING AROUND 1200 TO 1500 J/KG OF DCAPE
THAT COULD RESULT IN SOME DOWN BURST WINDS PUSHING 60 TO 70 MPH.
MEANWHILE, PWAT VALUES FOR TOMORROW CONTINUE TO TREND HIGHER THAN
YESTERDAY’S ACTIVITY WITH SOME AREAS PEAKING OVER THE 1.5 INCH
MARK. THIS COULD LEAD TO MUCH BETTER RAINFALL RATES AND LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN ENVIRONMENTS AND AREAS THAT
HAVE ALREADY SEEN DECENT RAINFALL FROM YESTERDAY. OTHERWISE LOOK
FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
MOVING INTO MONDAY, MODELS DO SEE THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM START TO RETROGRADE BACK WEST TOWARDS THE PANHANDLES. THIS
MOVEMENT WILL BE START OF THE PANHANDLES WARMING BACK UP AND
DRYING BACK OUT. STILL CHANCES OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DO LOOK
REMAIN PRESENT FOR THE NORTH THAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALBEIT AT
ONLY AROUND A 10 TO 20 PERCENT.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARDS THE CURRENT UPPER-LEVEL
HIGH RETROGRADING BACK WEST DURING THE COURSE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
RETROGRADE WILL EVENTUALLY SEE SAID HIGH BACK OVER THE PANHANDLES
RESULTING IN A RETURN OF THE MORE WIDESPREAD TRIPLE-DIGIT
TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY ALONGSIDE THE POTENTIAL NEED FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAT RELATED PRODUCTS. UNFORTUNATELY THIS RETURN OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SEE OUR CHANCES OF STORMS DROP OFF FOR THE DAY AS
WELL. HOWEVER, PRESENT GFS AND ECMWF RUNS HAVE FINALLY GOTTEN INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE SUPPOSED TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. CURRENTLY THESE RUNS HAVE SEE THE MAIN
AXIS OF THE TROUGH FURTHER EAST THEN WHAT THE GFS WAS INITIALLY
TRYING TO DO, WHICH WILL KEEP KEEP US OUT OF THE MAIN ACTIVITY
PUSH FROM THE TROUGH UNFORTUNATELY. HOWEVER, THIS POSITION DOES
OPEN THE PANHANDLES TO SOME VERY GOOD NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW, WHICH WILL BE BENEFICIAL IN SEEING STORMS PUSH OFF THE
MOUNTAINS TO OUR WEST AND INTO OUR AREA ONCE AGAIN. PRESENT
ENSEMBLES HAVE ALSO PICKED UP ON THE IDEA WITH CURRENT NBM NOW
GIVING US A 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIPITATION IN OUR
WEST AND NORTH CLEAR INTO FRIDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT THIS
HIGH HAVE BEEN STAYING VERY POTENT IN MOST OF THE MODEL RUNS
CONFIDENCE IN THESE CHANCES HOLDING OUT ARE NOT TOO HIGH. FOR NOW,
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO TRIPLE-DIGITS TO BE THE
NORM FOR THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
PRESENT RADAR HAS CONTINUE TO SEE THE FRONT BOUNDARY HAVE A MUCH
BETTER PUSH SOUTH THAN INITIAL MODELS HAVE EXPECT. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN SOME VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AROUND KAMA WITH BOTH KDHT
AND KGUY HAVE MUCH LONGER LAST STORM IMPACTS AS WELL. THESE
IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS WITH STORMS LOOKING TO BE RATHER QUICK TO DIE OFF
NOW THAT THE FRONT IS FURTHER SOUTH. STILL LOOK FOR BROKEN TO
SCATTER CLOUD BASES TO BE PRESENT THROUGH SUNRISE FOR ALL OF THE
TERMINALS ALBEIT WITH VFR LEVEL IN TERMS OF CIGS. OTHERWISE,
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH CONFIDENCE NOW GROWING THAT
KAMA WILL LIKELY SEE THE FIRST IMPACTS IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
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