249
FXUS64 KAMA 161808
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
108 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WHICH COULD LEAD TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING.
- HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK IN THIS WEEK RESULTING
IN ANOTHER ROUND OF 100+ DEGREES FOR THE PANHANDLES STARTING ON
TUESDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAT HEADLINES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
AS OF THE LATEST 17Z OBS, WE CONTINUE TO WATCH AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT'S CONVECTION CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTH INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE, ROUGHLY FROM JUST
SOUTH OF HEREFORD, EAST TO CLARENDON. FURTHER ALOFT IN THE (+)H500
THETA-E FLOW REGIME, SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE
MAIN LIFTING MECHANISM WITH NOTABLE PERTURBATIONS IN THE WSW FLOW
COMING FROM WESTERN NM WILL HELP TO GENERATE MOUNTAIN CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. SIMILAR TO SATURDAY,
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND GRADUALLY MOVE
EAST. WITH ANEMIC STEERING FLOW, MOTION OF STORMS OVERALL WILL BE
SLOW AND ALSO WITH TRAINING OF STORM POTENTIAL, LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. OVERALL THUNDERSTORMS. DCAPE VALUES
OVER 1000 J/KG FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL ALSO RESULT IN THE
CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FOR SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN
THE MORE ROBUST CORES. STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME ELEVATED BY
TONIGHT AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY RACES OUT AHEAD OF MAIN ACTIVITY, BUT
STILL WATCHING LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT CLOSELY. ANY RESIDUAL
ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIT THE PANHANDLES TO THE NORTHEAST INTO KANSAS
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.
GOING INTO MONDAY, THE BROAD MID LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC FEATURE
SHOULD ELONGATE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS. THE POTENTIAL IS
THERE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM FOR THE FAR NW PANHANDLES, BUT OVERALL
COVERAGE FOR RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE LESS COMPARED TO TODAY. WITH
MORE OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE, TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO CLIMB WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY WELL INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES, POTENTIAL REACHING 100 DEGREES FOR THE FAR SE TX
PANHANDLE AND PALO DURO CANYON.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
IF YOU LIKE HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR OVER 100 DEGREES ONCE AGAIN,
YOU WILL ENJOY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHERE MOST OF THE PANHANDLES
SHOULD EXPERIENCE THESE TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN H500 HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY THE
END OF THE WEEK BRINGING LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE TO THE REGION.
SOME OF THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SET UP OF MID
LEVEL NW FLOW BRING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES, BUT
WE WILL WATCH THOSE TRENDS CLOSELY AS WE GET LATER IN THE WEEK.
UNFORTUNATELY, WE WILL BE ADDING MORE 100 DEGREE DAYS TO THE
SUMMER FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD, ADDING TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING FOR MID TO LATE AUGUST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF
SITES FOR THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE FOR
KDHT/KGUY FROM ROUGHLY 03-12Z, PROB30 WAS ADDED FOR TSRA WHERE
ERRATIC WINDS FROM STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, OVERALL
WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 5-10 KTS WITH FEW TO SCT HIGH CLOUDS.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...29
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