748
FXUS64 KAMA 180539
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1239 AM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
- ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD TRIPLE-DIGIT TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE EASTERN PANHANDLES SEEING HIGH
UPWARDS OF 107 DEGREES.
- CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
PRESENT FOR WEDNESDAY AND NEXT WEEK WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAINS POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON AS THE PANHANDLES HOLDS ONTO THESE HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
PRESENT MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO SEE THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH
RETROGRADE BACK WEST WITH MOST MODELS SEEING IT DIRECTLY OVER THE
PANHANDLES BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL UNFORTUNATELY SEE A RETURN
OF MUCH DRIER AND HOTTER CONDITIONS FOR THE DAY WITH ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RELYING ON THE REMNANTS OF STORMS MAKING IT
OFF THE MOUNTAINS TO OUR WEST. TO FURTHER AMPLIFY THESE
CONDITIONS, PRESENT CAMS HAVE SEEN DECENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
PRESENT AT THE LOWER-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE THAT WILL LIKELY SEE
BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACES. THESE WINDS WILL AID
IN SEEING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP AS LOW AS 15% WHILE
TEMPERATURES PUSH TRIPLE-DIGITS FOR MULTIPLE LOCATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR THE EASTERN PANHANDLES, TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED RISE AS HIGH AS 107 DEGREES WITH OUR MORE TERRAIN
BASED LOCATIONS FEELING EVENING HOTTER. GIVEN THESE TEMPERATURES,
A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN PANHANDLES FROM
NOON UNTIL 9 PM TONIGHT. MEANWHILE ACROSS THE ENTIRE PANHANDLES,
LOOK FOR THIS HOT, DRY AND BREEZY STATE TO BRING BACK ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE AFTERNOON.
AS FOR WEDNESDAY, A SLIGHT REPRISE OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE DOES
CONTINUE TO TREND AS MODELS SEE THE HIGH BACK OFF WITH THE
SOUTHERLY PUSH OF A TROUGH SITTING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA.
WHILE THE PANHANDLES WON’T FEEL THE FULL EXTENT OF THIS TROUGH, IT
WILL OPEN US TO ENOUGH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO ALLOW A WEAK
DISTURBANCE TO FORCES STORMS TO PUSH IN FROM THE MOUNTAINS TO OUR
WEST. IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, PRESENT CAMS HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
STORMS PRODUCING STRONG TO DAMAGING GUSTS THAN ANYTHING ELSE,
GIVEN THE LACK OF HIGH AMOUNTS OF CAPE OR WIND SHEAR. REGARDLESS,
THIS SHIFT WILL HELP IN COOLING OFF THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES WITH
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE LOW 90S, WHILE THE FAR SOUTHEAST STILL
DEALS WITH TRIPLE-DIGIT TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
THE PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH TO OUR EAST WILL AID IN KEEPING THE
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OFF THE PANHANDLES FOR AN EXTRA DAY THURSDAY,
WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES STAYING CLOSER TO THE MID 90S
FOR THE DAY. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS BREAK DOES NOT LOOK TO LAST AS
PRESENT MODEL AGREEMENT SEES THE HIGH RETURNING IN FULL FORCE BY
FRIDAY, WITH A FEW RUNS EVEN SUGGESTING THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
SITTING OVER THE PANHANDLES BY THIS WEEKEND. THIS PLACEMENT OF THE
HIGH IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF VERY HOT DAYS WITH
WIDESPREAD TRIPLE-DIGIT TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND AND START OF
NEXT WEEK. AS FOR PRECIPITATION, THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES DO STILL
HOLD AROUND A 10 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEE STORMS PUSH IN FORM
THE SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE. HOWEVER FOR THE SOUTH, THESE CHANCES ARE
VERY SLIM WITH PRESENT GUIDANCE ONLY CALLING FOR A 10 PERCENT OR
LESS CHANCE OF STORMS EACH DAY. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR THESE HOT AND
DRY CONDITIONS TO FURTHER AGGRAVATE FUELS AND BRING MORE CHANCES
OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PUSHES BACK OVER THE PANHANDLES. THIS WILL
LEAVE ALL TERMINALS AT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE CURRENT TAF PACKAGE.
HOWEVER, EXPECTED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO PICK UP AT THE SURFACE
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ004-005-008>010-014-015-018>020-317.
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
OKZ003.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page