944
FXUS64 KAMA 281126
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
626 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
- CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN LOW HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
- TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING UPWARDS. TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS RETURN
TODAY AND MAY LAST THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
TONIGHT... RECENT CAMS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY MINIMAL COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS TWO NIGHTS. WHILE SOME
EARLIER RUNS ATTEMPTED TO FORM ANOTHER LINE OF STORMS OVER THE CWA,
THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGH CIN OVER THE AREA WITH WEAK
FORCING FROM THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW AS THE PRIMARY SOURCE OF LIFT
THIS MORNING. THAT BEING SAID, WE CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS
THAT MANAGE TO UTILIZE OUR ELEVATED INSTABILITY, BUT STORMS MAY
STRUGGLE PERSIST IN THIS ENVIRONMENT.
REST OF FRIDAY... MID TO UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE REGION,
LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN OUR TEMPERATURE PROFILES. HIGHS TODAY MAY
RANGE FROM THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S. A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ALSO PROMOTE BREEZY WINDS TO RETURN THIS AFTERNOON.
THE WIND DIRECTION SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTHERLY. HIRES MODELS
ARE STILL NOT CONFIDENT IN THUNDERSTORMS EFFECTING THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FA THIS EVENING. STORM MOTION TODAY SHOULD BE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST, SO UNLESS CONVECTION CAN FORM NEAR THE STATE
LINE, THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO NEW MEXICO. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE A NOTABLE INCREASE AS MOST LOCATIONS MAY NOT
DECREASE BELOW 70 DEGREES SATURDAY MORNING.
SATURDAY... HOTTER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AREA WIDE TO
START THE WEEKEND. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD RETURN WITH HIGHS OVER 100
DEGREES, WITH PDC SHOWING MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES OF REACHING 105.
WHILE SURFACE TRENDS POINT TOWARDS LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND
HIGHER SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS, RECENT RAINS MAY HELP MITIGATE OUR
FIRE RISK FROM INCREASING GREATLY. STILL, PATCHY ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
RANGEL
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
LONG RANGE MODELS STILL DISPLAY SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT
OF THE UPPER HIGH LATE IN THE LONG TERM. WHICHEVER SCENARIO PANS
OUT, THE HIGH SHOWS NO SIGNS OF BECOMING SUPPRESSED AS WE HEAD
INTO SEPTEMBER. THEREFORE, HOT +100 DEGREE HIGHS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS. POPS REMAIN PRESENT AT THE FOREFRONT OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO FAVORABLE ANTICYCLONIC STEERING FLOW.
HOWEVER, POPS CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD AND OUR NORTHWEST ZONES
MAY BE THE ONLY LOCATIONS FAVORED TO RECEIVE PRECIPITATION NEXT
WEEK.
RANGEL
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
AS OF THIS MORNING, PRESENT RADAR WAS SEEING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS PUSH SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PANHANDLES WITH MINOR IMPACTS BEING SEEING AROUND KGUY AND KAMA.
THESE STORMS SHOULD MOVE OFF THE TERMINALS BY AROUND 13 UTC WITH
SOME LOW CHANCES (LESS THAN 10%) TO STILL SEE SOME VICINITY
SHOWERS FOR AN EXTRA HOUR LONGER. BEYOND THIS MORNING ACTIVITY,
ALL TERMINALS SHOULD STAY VFR WITH SOME BREEZY SURFACE WIND DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...11
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