206
FXUS64 KAMA 292316
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
616 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
-HEAT WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LOCATIONS, INCLUDING PALO DURO CANYON, TO OBSERVE
HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 105 DEGREES THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
-VERY LOW (20 PERCENT OR LESS) PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LINGER
FOR MAINLY THE NORTHWEST COMBINED PANHANDLES THROUGH THE END OF
AUGUST.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
AFTER OUR BRIEF BREAK IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME
BETTER RAIN, WE RETURN TO OUR PREVIOUS WEATHER PATTERN. THE 596DM
UPPER RIDGE THAT EDGED OUT EVER SO SLIGHTLY TO PROVIDE SOME OF THAT
RELIEF IS NOW BUILDING BACK ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN. WHILE THIS WILL
NOT COMPLETELY TURN OFF RAIN POTENTIAL, IT WILL LIMIT IT ONCE AGAIN.
THE NORTHWEST COMBINED PANHANDLES, IN PARTICULAR THE WESTERN
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE, DOES HAVE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR
STORMS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING COMING OFF THE
CO/NM MOUNTAINS BUT THIS WON'T BE WIDESPREAD. OTHERWISE THE MAIN
STORY WILL BE THE HEAT WITH A RETURN TO THE 100S. IT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THE RECENT RAINFALL WILL AFFECT HOW FAST WE
GET BACK TO 100, OR IF THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING FEEDBACK CYCLE
THAT MAY DELAY IT BY A DAY OR SO. PALO DURO CANYON REMAINS IN A HEAT
ADVISORY TODAY AS TEMPERATURES COULD REACH UP TO 105 DEGREES THERE.
WILL MONITOR THE NEED FOR ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES THROUGH THE
WEEK.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
THE WEATHER PATTERN DOESN'T CHANGE TOO MUCH EVEN THOUGH WE WILL FLIP
THE CALENDAR TO SEPTEMBER. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN MOSTLY PARKED
ACROSS THE AREA AND THE SOUTH IN GENERAL. BY MID TO LATE WEEK, THERE
IS SOME SUGGESTION AT LEAST BY DETERMINISTIC MODELS, THAT THIS RIDGE
MAY SHIFT ONCE AGAIN TO THE EAST FURTHER AND THIS COULD OPEN THE
DOOR TO BETTER MONSOON POTENTIAL MOVING INTO THE WEST. HOWEVER,
THERE REMAINS LITTLE ON THE HORIZON FOR GOOD RAIN POTENTIAL AND ANY
SIGNIFICANT COOL-DOWN. THE FORECAST REMAINS RATHER DRY AND WITH
HIGHS OF UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S FOR THE NEXT WEEK. ON ANY GIVEN DAY
WHERE THE WINDS MAY INCREASE, WE COULD ALSO SEE ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AS WELL.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE 0Z TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH, TURNING SW DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. KGUY AND KDHT MAY TURN MORE WSW OR EVEN W
EARLY ON SUNDAY MORNING. THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
SUNDAY (06Z-10Z), LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KDHT AND KGUY, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BE SOUTHERLY,
SUSTAINED AROUND 15-20 KTS AND GUSTING UP TO 30 KTS, WITH THE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR GUSTS AT KAMA.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ317.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM....28
AVIATION...23
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