413
FXUS64 KAMA 301033
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
533 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
- HEAT WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCATIONS, INCLUDING PALO DURO CANYON, TO
OBSERVE HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 105 DEGREES THROUGH THE WEEK.
- VERY LOW (20 PERCENT OR LESS) PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LINGER
FOR MAINLY THE NORTHWEST COMBINED PANHANDLES THROUGH THE END OF
AUGUST.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
EXPECT A HOT AND MOSTLY DRY END TO AUGUST, AS HIGH PRESSURE MEANDERS
BACK ATOP THE REGION. RECORD HEAT WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL TODAY,
ESPECIALLY AT DALHART AND BORGER. DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER WILL
SUPPORT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BOTH TODAY AND MONDAY FOR
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. A RELATIVELY MOISTURE STARVED
ENVIRONMENT ATOP THE REGION WILL GREATLY DIMINISH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES, ALTHOUGH 10-20% POPS EXIST ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST
PANHANDLES IN THE EVENING HOURS BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW.
MESOANALYSIS AND SATELLITE WATER VAPOR SHOW A 595 DAM RIDGE
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, AND WILL CONTINUE
TRANSLATING EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A TIGHTER SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PANHANDLES, LEADING TO
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES UNFORTUNATELY WILL CLIMB BACK TO THE UPPER 90S TO JUST
ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK IN TANDEM WITH THESE BREEZY WINDS. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES MAY SPARK A ROGUE SHOWER OR STORM FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER, RAIN PROBABILITIES WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW 10% FOR
ANY ONE LOCATION OUTSIDE OF THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES.
HARREL
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
MODEL TRENDS AREN'T LOOKING GREAT TO KICK OFF SEPTEMBER, AS HOT AND
DRY CONDITIONS ARE VERY LIKELY TO PREVAIL. BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE DATASETS DEPICT HIGH PRESSURE BEING NUDGED EASTWARD OVER
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS THROUGH THE WEEK, AS PERSISTENT TROUGHING
SETTLES ATOP THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH THIS DOES LOOSEN THE
GRIP OF RIDGING OVER THE PANHANDLES, IT SHOULD STILL HAVE ENOUGH
INFLUENCE TO REDUCE MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE CWA WHILE KEEPING HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90 TO 105 RANGE EACH DAY THIS WEEK. IF THERE ARE
ANY DAYS WITH BETTER RAIN CHANCES, MODELS SUGGEST TUE COULD SEE
SLIGHTLY IMPROVED POTENTIAL AS THE JET STREAM SAGS CLOSER TO THE
PANHANDLES. HOWEVER, THIS STILL ONLY SUPPORTS MEAGER 10-20% POPS
TO FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN ANY GIVEN DAY WITH BREEZY WINDS, BUT
WE'LL MONITOR TRENDS FOR LATER THIS WEEK TO SEE IF TROUGHING
COULD PROVIDE BETTER RAIN OPPORTUNITIES AGAIN.
HARREL
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 503 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS AND ACROSS THE PANHANDLES FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AND GUSTY DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS AT ALL TERMINALS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES. THE CHANCE OF THESE OCCURRING AT ANY
TERMINAL ARE CURRENTLY TO LOW TO BE REFLECTED IN THE KDHT AND KGUY
TAFS.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR TXZ317.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...98
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