061
FXUS64 KAMA 310523
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1223 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
- PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA, LEADING TO
CONTINUED ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
REACH 105 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS THIS WEEK.
- VERY LOW (20 PERCENT OR LESS) PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LINGER
FOR MAINLY THE NORTHWEST COMBINED PANHANDLES THROUGH MIDWEEK,
BUT OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
WE BEGIN THE WEE HOURS OF THE WORK WEEK WITH WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
DEVELOPING ALONG A SUBTLE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND MINOR UPPER LEVEL
PERTURBATION OVER SE COLORADO. EXPECT ADDITIONAL WEAK DEVELOPMENT TO
OCCUR FURTHER ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL COMBINED PANHANDLES AROUND
SUNRISE, BUT ANY SHOWERS LIKELY WON'T PRODUCE MUCH RAINFALL. ONCE
THIS ACTIVITY CLEARS, WE TRANSITION BACK INTO AN ABNORMALLY HOT
AUGUST AFTERNOON. HIGHS ARE PRIMARILY FORECAST IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S, WITH A HANDFUL OF LOCATIONS REACHING TRIPLE DIGITS.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL FURTHER TRANSITION EASTWARD OVER THE OZARKS
TOMORROW, WHICH WILL HELP REGIONAL TEMPERATURES LOWER BY A MEASLY
DEGREE OR TWO (STILL MID 90S AND TRIPLE DIGITS). BREEZY SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WILL BE IN PLACE BOTH TODAY AND
TOMORROW AS WELL. AS IN PREVIOUS DAYS, ANY APPRECIABLE MOISTURE WILL
ONLY BE PRESENT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST PANHANDLES, WITH 10-20%
CHANCES FOR STRAY WEAK SHOWERS/STORMS ON THE PERIPHERY OF UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE.
HARREL
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
OUR SEEMINGLY ENDLESS STRETCH OF ABNORMAL HEAT STILL HAS NO END
IN SIGHT, AS MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DOMINATING THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
DATASETS DEPICT HIGH PRESSURE BEING NUDGED EASTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS THROUGH THE WEEK, AND THEN MORPHING BACK ON TOP OF
THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND AS PERSISTENT TROUGHING SETTLES ATOP THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE PANHANDLES WILL BE
SCARCE THIS WEEK, WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES STEADILY REMAIN IN THE
90 TO 105 RANGE EACH DAY. IF THERE ARE ANY BETTER RAIN CHANCES,
MODELS SUGGEST MID WEEK COULD SEE SLIGHTLY IMPROVED POTENTIAL AS
THE JET STREAM SAGS CLOSER TO THE PANHANDLES. HOWEVER, THIS STILL
ONLY SUPPORTS MEAGER 10-20% POPS TO FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
HARREL
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
VFR SKY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT ALL SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.
WINS WILL MOSTLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 10-15KTS, BUT A WEAK
BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT KDHT AND KGUY
EARLY THIS MORNING.
HARREL
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...38
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