000
FXUS64 KAMA 311828
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
128 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
- PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA, LEADING TO
CONTINUED ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
REACH 105 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS THIS WEEK.
- VERY LOW (20 PERCENT OR LESS) PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LINGER
FOR MAINLY THE NORTHWEST COMBINED PANHANDLES THROUGH MIDWEEK,
BUT OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN DISPLACED OFF TO THE EAST OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, BUT IS VERY BROAD IN SIZE. UNFORTUNATELY THIS
WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS DESPITE AMPLE MOISTURE ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH MANAGING TO TRACK INTO THE NM AREA. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE ~15% THAT WE GET SOME MOISTURE RIGHT ALONG OUR STATE
LINE, AND INTO CIMARRON COUNTY THIS EVENING FOR A SHOWER OR STORM TO
OCCUR BUT FURTHER EAST IS NOT VERY LIKELY. WE WILL STILL TAKE INTO
ACCOUNT THAT RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM LAST WEEKS STORMS MAY
LEAD TO AN ISOLATED STORM MANAGING TO OCCUR JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE, BUT
THAT REALLY IS ONLY A 5% CHANCE AND NOT WORTHY OF MENTION IN THE
FORECAST ITSELF. THAT BEING SAID THERE IS SOME CU DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE PALO DURO CANYON AREA, BUT THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A PRETTY
SUBSTANTIAL CAP IN PLACE THAT WOULD TAKE A LOT TO ERODE. SO
CONFIDENCE STILL NOT HIGH THAT WE WILL MANAGE TO GET STORMS OUT OF
THESE. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN APPROACH 100 IN SEVERAL AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON, AND WHILE TOMORROW SHOULD HAVE SIMILAR HIGHS AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST, AND THAT SHOULD INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER
CHANCES JUST A BIT TO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PANHANDLES WHICH COULD
SUPPORT SLIGHTLY LOWER HIGHS ON TUESDAY. LIKE TODAY, THERE'S A LOW
CHANCE THAT A SHOWER OR STORM TRACKS ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER OR MAKES
ITS WAY IN TO THE WESTERN PANHANDLE IN THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE
HEAT AND CONTINUED DRYING TREND, WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN
VIGILANT ABOUT ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS, AND THAT FIRES CAN STILL
EASILY SPARK WITH THESE DRY GRASSES, DESPITE THE OVERALL WEATHER
CONDITIONS NOT BEING IDEAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER.
WEBER
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
THE RIDGE WILL STAY OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING WEST AGAIN. THIS WILL KEEP THAT DOME OF DRY AIR
MOSTLY OVER OUR AREA, BUT COULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR AN ISOLATED STORM
OR TWO TO OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. POPS ARE STILL ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE, BUT WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE PANHANDLES ON THURSDAY MAY HAVE A LITTLE IMPULSE THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA, AND IT COULD TRIGGER A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE AT
STORMS, AND ANOTHER AREA TO WATCH WILL BE IF THERE IS REMNANCE OF
WHAT IS CURRENTLY KNOWN AS TROPICAL CYCLONE FIVE OVER THE GULF SOUTH
OF LOUISIANA. THAT CYCLONE COULD APPROACH CLOSE ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY
PROVIDE A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE THAT MIGHT LEAD TO BETTER STORM
CHANCES, BUT STILL AT THIS TIME CHANCES ARE NOT LOOKING VERY GOOD.
AS THAT HIGH START TO SHIFT FURTHER WEST ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, IT
LOOKS LIKE WE COULD BE BACK IN THE WIDESPREAD 100'S FOR THE
PANHANDLES.
WEBER
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH WINDS MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST SHIFTING MORE
SOUTHERLY. VERY LOW CHANCE THAT A SHOWER OR STORM WOULD OCCUR, AND
THEREFORE ANY MENTION OF STORMS (MAINLY AT KDHT OR KGUY) WOULD BE
DEALT WITH VIA AMENDMENTS. WIND SPEED FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE 5
TO 10 KTS, BUT MAY AT TIMES BE 10 TO 15KTS, GUSTING UP TO 25KTS
IN THE 18-03Z TIME FRAME.
WEBER
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...89
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