650
FXUS64 KAMA 010507
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1207 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
- VERY LOW (20 PERCENT OR LESS) PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LINGER
FOR MAINLY THE NORTHWEST COMBINED PANHANDLES THROUGH MIDWEEK,
BUT OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
- PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA, LEADING TO
CONTINUED ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
REACH 105 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS THIS WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
THANKFULLY, IN THE MIDST OF SWELTERING SEPTEMBER HEAT, WE STILL HAVE
VERY LOW (BUT MENTIONABLE) PRECIPITATION CHANCES. UNFORTUNATELY,
ONLY A VERY SELECT FEW FOR A VERY SMALL PORTION OF THE PANHANDLES
HAVE THIS POTENTIAL. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS SETTLING OVER THE SE
CONUS, WHICH WILL HELP REGIONAL TEMPERATURES LOWER BY ANOTHER DEGREE
OR TWO TODAY (STILL MID 90S AND TRIPLE DIGITS). BREEZY SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20 MPH WILL BE IN PLACE BOTH TODAY AND
TOMORROW, WHICH COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. AS
IN PREVIOUS DAYS, ANY APPRECIABLE MOISTURE WILL ONLY BE PRESENT
ACROSS THE FAR WEST-NORTHWEST PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING,
WITH 10-20% CHANCES FOR STRAY WEAK SHOWERS/STORMS ON THE PERIPHERY
OF UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE.
SLIM RAIN CHANCES RETURN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY, AND MAY BE SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST ALONG A SFC TROUGH/STALLED BOUNDARY OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST PANHANDLES ACCORDING TO SOME OF THE LATEST
CAM RUNS. IF MOISTURE POOLED ALONG THIS FEATURE IS SUFFICIENT, A
VERY WEAK PERTURBATION COULD ALSO HELP GET THIS HYPOTHETICAL
CONVECTION GOING. EVEN THEN, ACTIVITY WOULD BE VERY SPOTTY AND
RATHER WEAK (10- 15% POPS). HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AGAIN
WEDNESDAY, UP BY A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD.
HARREL
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
OUR SEEMINGLY ENDLESS STRETCH OF ABNORMAL HEAT FURTHERMORE HAS NO
END IN SIGHT, AS MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
DOMINATING THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
DATASETS DEPICT HIGH PRESSURE BEING NUDGED EASTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS THROUGH THE WEEK, AND THEN MORPHING BACK ON TOP OF
THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND AS PERSISTENT TROUGHING SETTLES ATOP THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE PANHANDLES WILL BE
SCARCE, WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES STEADILY REMAIN IN THE 90 TO 105
RANGE EACH DAY. IF THERE ARE ANY BETTER RAIN CHANCES, MODELS SUGGEST
THURSDAY COULD SEE SLIGHTLY IMPROVED POTENTIAL AS THE JET STREAM
SAGS CLOSER TO THE PANHANDLES. HOWEVER, THIS STILL ONLY SUPPORTS
MEAGER 10-20% POPS TO MAINLY FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
HARREL
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO RE-STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY TOMORROW
BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KTS.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...38
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