603
FXUS64 KAMA 012330
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
630 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
- A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS (<20 PERCENT) FOR VARIOUS
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
- HEAT IMPACTS WILL BEGIN TO RETURN IN THE COMING DAYS AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD 100'S ACROSS MOST OF THE PANHANDLES
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
- TEMPERATURES TO BACK OFF INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, WITH INCREASED (BUT STILL LOW <25 PERCENT) CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
NOW THAT THE HIGH HAS SHIFTED FURTHER EAST OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY, WE ARE UNDER A MORE SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME AMPLE MID LEVEL
MOISTURE, BUT WE'RE STILL CAPPED AROUND 600MB, WITH AMPLE DRY AIR
ALOFT, AND WE MAY LACK THE SURFACE MOISTURE BELOW 700 MB TO OVERCOME
THAT CAP. 18Z SOUNDING ML CIN IS SURPRISINGLY ON THE WEAKER SIDE
THAT COULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT, BUT STILL THE DRY AIR ALOFT COULD BE
THE TRUE LIMITING FACTOR. NOW, THERE COULD BE A VERY LOW CHANCE
(~10%) THAT THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLES OVERCOME THIS CAP AND GET A
LIGHT SHOWER TO ISOLATED STORM THIS AFTERNOON, SO HAVE ADDED 10 POP
TO THAT AREA THROUGH ABOUT 7PM. BUT OVERALL, EXPECTING MOSTLY FLAT
CU OUT THERE, BUT FURTHER WEST THERE IS A WEAKER CAP SUPPORTING
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN EASTER NM THAT HAS A LOW CHANCE (~20% CHANCE)
OF MAKING IT TO THE WESTERN TX/OK PANHANDLE THIS EVENING.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE PRETTY CLOSE TO A REPEAT, ONLY THE FLOW WILL BE
ALMOST WEST SOUTHWEST SHIFTING THAT POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT
TO ACTUALLY BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL PANHANDLE AREA. VERY
SUBTLE DIFFERENCE TOMORROW IN THAT TEMPERATURE DEWPOINT SPREAD COULD
ALLOW FOR JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO AVOID THE CAP. ALSO, MID LEVEL
DRY AIR IS NOT NEARLY AS PRONOUNCED AS IT IS TODAY. SO JUST A LITTLE
MORE SURFACE MOISTURE, COMBINED WITH VERY SIMILAR HIGHS, MAYBE EVEN
A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER, COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO GET THOSE STORMS TO
OCCUR. SO HAVE NOTED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS FOR THE SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL PANHANDLES. IF SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP TOMORROW
THE SHEAR ALOFT WILL BE VERY WEAK WITH MAYBE 500-750 J/KG OF CAPE TO
WORK WITH, AND SO THEY WILL JUST FORM AND COLLAPSE. DCAPE VALUES
COULD APPROACH 2000 J/KG, AND SO STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT OCCUR. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON
THESE POP UP STORMS, IT MAY WARRANT A VERY LOCALIZED OUTLOOK FOR
STRONG DAMAGING WINDS, BUT STILL CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW SIDE AT
THIS TIME. ALSO WILL NOTE THAT IF WE GET THESE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS, WE NEED TO BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR POSSIBLE FIRE
IGNITIONS FROM LIGHTNING SINCE THE FUELS ARE STILL VERY DRY AND
DESPITE THE RECENT RAINS LAST WEEK, WE CERTAINLY COULD GET GRASS
FIRES FROM LIGHTNING.
WEBER
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
THURSDAY IS PRETTY SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY SO WE COULD HAVE A REPEAT OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN BE ACHIEVED AND FOR
THIS HAVE THOSE LOW (~20%) POPS IN THE FORECAST. BY FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND THE TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE, BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL
DECREASE AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO BE MORE CENTER OVER OUR
AREA BY SUNDAY. SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MAKE CHANGES TO
OUR EXTENDED GRIDS. WILL NOTE THAT THE HIGH STARTS TO VERY SLOWLY
BREAK DOWN SUNDAY AND MONDAY, AND THAT WILL BRING THOSE TEMPERATURES
BACK INTO THE 90S FOR THE MOST PART, WITH INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE, WHICH WOULD BE MAINLY THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLES.
WEBER
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE 00Z TAF PERIOD AT ALL
TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST 5-15 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS.
SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...29
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