573
FXUS64 KAMA 021859
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
159 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
- A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS (<25 PERCENT) FOR VARIOUS
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES TODAY AND THURSDAY.
- HEAT IMPACTS WILL BEGIN TO RETURN WITH SOME AREAS TOUCHING
100 TODAY AND A GRADUAL INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PANHANDLES HAVE CLIMBED
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60. WE DO STILL HAVE DECENT MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CAM'S ARE SUGGESTING THAT WE WILL HAVE ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY. LIGHT CU FIELD HAS STARTED IN THE
SOUTHEAST AND WILL LIKELY EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. THE
QUESTION IS IF WE CAN GET ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME SHOWERS AD
EVEN SOME STORMS. SOUNDINGS REALLY STRUGGLE TO GIVE THAT AMPLE ML
CAPE FOR DECENT GROWTH, BUT HAD BEEN RUNNING WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS
THAN CURRENTLY OBSERVED. 18Z SOUNDING ALSO SHOWING VERY LITTLE ML
CIN WITH AMPLE 500-700MB MOISTURE. LAPSE RATES COULD BE BETTER, BUT
ALREADY SEEING SOME RETURNS FROM THE BUILDING CU. STORMS THAT
MANAGE TO FORM TODAY COULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL, BUT ALSO MAY HAVE SMALL CORES, AND THUS IF AMPLE LIGHTNING
IS INVOLVED, THEN WE MAY HAVE CONCERNS OF FIRE STARTS. ALSO, STORMS
WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD DIMINISH OFF IN THE EVENING, BUT HAVE AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE
TO RETURN TOMORROW. THE SETUP IS SIMILAR TO TODAY, BUT COULD HAVE A
LITTLE MORE EXPANSIVE COVERAGE, AND THAT WOULD INCREASE THE CONCERNS
FOR LIGHTNING THAT COULD SPARK GRASS FIRES. ALSO TEMPERATURES MAY BE
UP A DEGREE OR TWO ON THURSDAY, WITH SOME AREAS GETTING VERY CLOSE
TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
WEBER
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
THE DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS CERTAINLY STILL ON THE
TABLE AS THE HIGH RETROGRADES WEST BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS, BUT LOOKS TO BE MORE AMPLIFIED AND THAT WOULD GIVE A BETTER
CHANCE AT DRAWING UP MORE GULF MOISTURE AND EASTERN PACIFIC MOISTURE
THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE NM AREA TO OUR AREA. STILL LOW CONFIDENCE AT
THIS TIME, AS MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP A RIDGE OVER THE PANHANDLES,
BUT STRUGGLE WITH THE STRENGTH AND OVERALL POSITION OF THE RIDGE
MOVING INTO THE EXTENDED. NOW AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK, WE'RE
SEEING THAT THE RIDGE IS BREAKING DOWN BUT STILL EXPANDS BACK TO THE
EAST AND STILL KEEPS MOST OF THE MOISTURE RUNNING UP AND OVER THE
PANHANDLES, BUT THERE ARE SUBTLE HINTS THAT WE COULD GET SOME OF
THAT MOISTURE CLIP THE NORTHWEST.
WEBER
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH WINDS 10-15KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND MAY GUST TO
25KTS AT TIMES. FEW TO SCATTERED MID CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, AND WE MAY EVEN GET SHOWERS/STORMS NEAR OR AROUND KAMA AND
KDHT, BUT STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO PROB30, SO STORMS
WILL BE DEALT WITH VIA AMENDMENTS. SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD RETURN
AGAIN AFTER 18Z THURSDAY FOR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WEBER
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...89
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