629
FXUS64 KAMA 022314
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
614 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
- A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS (20 TO 40 PERCENT) FOR
VARIOUS PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES TODAY AND THURSDAY.
- HEAT IMPACTS WILL BEGIN TO RETURN WITH SOME AREAS REACHING 100
DEGREES THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PANHANDLES HAVE CLIMBED
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60. WE DO STILL HAVE DECENT MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CAM'S ARE SUGGESTING THAT WE WILL HAVE ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY. LIGHT CU FIELD HAS STARTED IN THE
SOUTHEAST AND WILL LIKELY EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. THE
QUESTION IS IF WE CAN GET ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME SHOWERS AD
EVEN SOME STORMS. SOUNDINGS REALLY STRUGGLE TO GIVE THAT AMPLE ML
CAPE FOR DECENT GROWTH, BUT HAD BEEN RUNNING WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS
THAN CURRENTLY OBSERVED. 18Z SOUNDING ALSO SHOWING VERY LITTLE ML
CIN WITH AMPLE 500-700MB MOISTURE. LAPSE RATES COULD BE BETTER, BUT
ALREADY SEEING SOME RETURNS FROM THE BUILDING CU. STORMS THAT
MANAGE TO FORM TODAY COULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL, BUT ALSO MAY HAVE SMALL CORES, AND THUS IF AMPLE LIGHTNING
IS INVOLVED, THEN WE MAY HAVE CONCERNS OF FIRE STARTS. ALSO, STORMS
WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. SHOWERS/STORMS
SHOULD DIMINISH OFF IN THE EVENING, BUT HAVE AN EVEN BETTER CHANCE
TO RETURN TOMORROW. THE SETUP IS SIMILAR TO TODAY, BUT COULD HAVE A
LITTLE MORE EXPANSIVE COVERAGE, AND THAT WOULD INCREASE THE CONCERNS
FOR LIGHTNING THAT COULD SPARK GRASS FIRES. ALSO TEMPERATURES MAY BE
UP A DEGREE OR TWO ON THURSDAY, WITH SOME AREAS GETTING VERY CLOSE
TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
WEBER
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
THE DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS CERTAINLY STILL ON THE
TABLE AS THE HIGH RETROGRADES WEST BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS, BUT LOOKS TO BE MORE AMPLIFIED AND THAT WOULD GIVE A BETTER
CHANCE AT DRAWING UP MORE GULF MOISTURE AND EASTERN PACIFIC MOISTURE
THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE NM AREA TO OUR AREA. STILL LOW CONFIDENCE AT
THIS TIME, AS MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP A RIDGE OVER THE PANHANDLES,
BUT STRUGGLE WITH THE STRENGTH AND OVERALL POSITION OF THE RIDGE
MOVING INTO THE EXTENDED. NOW AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK, WE'RE
SEEING THAT THE RIDGE IS BREAKING DOWN BUT STILL EXPANDS BACK TO THE
EAST AND STILL KEEPS MOST OF THE MOISTURE RUNNING UP AND OVER THE
PANHANDLES, BUT THERE ARE SUBTLE HINTS THAT WE COULD GET SOME OF
THAT MOISTURE CLIP THE NORTHWEST.
WEBER
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
MAIN THING TO WATCH FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS IS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS NEAR TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CURRENT
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH SUNSET, BUT
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE KAMA TAF IF NEW STORMS APPROACH
THE TERMINAL. STORM MENTIONS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR TAF SITES
TOMORROW AFTERNOON-EVENING, BUT DOUBTS EXIST ON WHERE STORMS ARE
MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 10-15
KTS, WITH A BRIEF SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A BOUNDARY IN
THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT ALL
SITES.
HARREL
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...38
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