236
FXUS64 KAMA 031123
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
623 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (20-40% POPS). STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
- HEAT IMPACTS RETURN TO PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES WITH SOME AREAS
EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
WITH HIGH PRESSURE WELL ENOUGH DISPLACED FROM THE REGION, SHORT-
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE FINALLY REALIZED THAT THE WINDOW IS OPEN
FOR SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES TO RETURN TO THE PANHANDLES.
OBSERVATIONAL DATA DEPICTS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ENCROACHING UPON THE
HIGH PLAINS, AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION EDUARDO FURTHER NUDGES THE HEAT
DOME OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS IS ALLOWING WEAK DISTURBANCES
AND DAYTIME HEATING TO TAKE BETTER ADVANTAGE OF RICH MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR AFTERNOON-EVENING STORM DEVELOPMENT. WHEREVER STORMS
DEVELOP MAY DEPEND ON THE LOCATION OF STALLED BOUNDARIES, THE
LOCATIONS OF WHICH ARE NOT SET IN STONE. BUT DON'T BE SURPRISED TO
WAKE UP TO A SMATTERING OF SMALL, WEAK SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES THIS MORNING ALONG ONE OF THESE BOUNDARIES.
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 95-105 RANGE, AND REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES STALLING OVER THE CWA, HI-RES CAMS ARE GETTING MORE AND
MORE AGGRESSIVE FORECASTING SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON-EVENING (20-40% POPS), AND EVEN AGAIN TOMORROW (LOWER
COVERAGE OF STORMS EXPECTED, 20-30% POPS). SEVERE STORMS AREN'T
LIKELY, ESPECIALLY WITH MUCAPE VALUES GENERALLY REMAINING <1000 J/KG
AND BULK SHEAR VALUES ONLY AROUND 5-15 KTS. HOWEVER, AS WE SAW
YESTERDAY, WIND GUSTS OF 50-60 MPH ARE ACHIEVABLE WITH DCAPE VALUES
OF 1000-2000 J/KG. MOISTURE CONTENT OVER THE PANHANDLES IS STILL
RIPE FOR PRODUCING LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS, WITH PWATS STEADILY
AROUND 1.0-1.5". THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG AND EAST OF
WHATEVER BOUNDARIES STORMS FORM OFF OF, WHICH FAVORS THE WESTERN TO
CENTRAL PANHANDLES BASED ON MOST CAMS. SOME NEWER TRENDS PLACE
HIGHER STORM CHANCES MORE ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN PANHANDLES
TODAY WHERE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM YESTERDAY IS LIKELY STALLED,
BUT WE WILL MONITOR THIS FOR ANY SHIFTS IN HIGHER PROBABILITIES.
HARREL
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
PRECIPITATION TRENDS ARE LOOKING UP FOR THE PANHANDLES AS WE
APPROACH THE SECOND WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING
ANOTHER TOASTY WEEKEND FOR THE AREA AS AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN SETS
UP THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THIS STILL PROMOTES HIGHS IN THE
90S TO TRIPLE DIGITS, THIS DOES "DIRTY UP" THE RIDGE ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR OCCASIONAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK. THE BLOCK LIKELY
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN BY MIDWEEK, BUT MODEL AGREEMENT DRASTICALLY
GOES DOWN THE PROVERBIAL DRAIN. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS GREATLY
STRUGGLING TO DECIDE HOW TO EVOLVE THE UPPER RIDGE AS DEEP TROUGHING
TAKES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, BUT ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST THAT THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN COULD FAVOR WETTER OUTCOMES. EVEN THOUGH CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ON THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL, A VERY GRADUAL "COOLING
TREND" IS LOOKING MORE ATTAINABLE. PERHAPS WE COULD EVEN SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S RETURN BY MID MONTH.
HARREL
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE 00Z TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL TURN W AND EVEN NW AT KDHT AND KGUY THIS MORNING,
BEFORE RETURNING TO S TO SSE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD
AT ALL THREE SITES. A PROB30 FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN ADDED FOR
KAMA FROM 21-24Z, WITH COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT KDHT AND
KGUY. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNDER 15 KTS SUSTAINED, GUSTING TO
A MAX OF 20 KTS THIS EVENING.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...23
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