348
FXUS64 KAMA 040331
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1031 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
-THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.
-HEAT ADVISORY FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR PALO DURO CANYON WHERE
HIGH TEMPERATURES UP TO 105 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
STILL SEEING A FEW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS THURSDAY EVENING FOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE DUE TO A WEAK PERTURBATION
IN THE H500 W/SW FLOW. REPORTS OF RAINFALL TOTALS IN SOME LOCATIONS
TOPPING OUT AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH FROM SLOW MOVING AND
TRAINING STORMS. LATEST 00Z AMA RAOB DATA SAMPLED 1.33" FOR OUR PWAT
VALUES SO THAT PUTS US IN THE 75-99TH PERCENTILE FOR PWAT CLIMO FOR
OUR AREA, SO WHEN STORMS DO FORM, THEY ARE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES. AFTER A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY AS STORMS DECREASE IN INTENSITY
AND COVERAGE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, DIURNALLY DRIVEN LIFT , AND WITH
W/SW FLOW AROUND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF MAIN H500 HIGH ADVECTING
PERTURBATIONS, WE SHOULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD 20-40 POPS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WE ALSO INCLUDED THE EASTERN PANHANDLES
IN A 15-30 POPS, BASED OFF WHERE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DECAYED
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT, WHICH CAN ACT AS A LOCAL AREA OF LIFT FOR
STORMS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ANY ROBUST STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS AND/OR HEAVY RAINFALL RATES
WHICH COULD PRODUCED LOCALIZED FLOODING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 90S TO A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE
100-105 DEGREE RANGE, WHERE PDC HAS A HEAT ADVISORY FOR 105 DEGREE
POTENTIAL BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SIMILAR SETUP TO START THE WEEKEND
ON SATURDAY, WITH HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FOR OUR AREA CLOSEST TO
THE NM STATELINE WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS WILL SET
UP. HIGHS ON SATURDAY COULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER COMPARED TO
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 95-103.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
LATEST GLOBAL MODEL DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW A POTENTIAL RANGE OF THE
MAIN H500 HIGH TO MEANDER BETWEEN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ANY DAILY RAIN CHANCES, IF ANY, WOULD FAVOR THE FAR
WESTERN PANHANDLES, WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE PANHANDLES REMAIN
MOSTLY DRY. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF EARLY SEPTEMBER.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE 00Z TAF PERIOD AT ALL
TAF SITES. VCTS CONDITIONS ARE BEING OBSERVED AT KAMA AND SHOULD
LAST FOR THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF CURRENT TAF BEFORE CONDITIONS
IMPROVE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM SE TO SW AT 5-15 KTS,
WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TXZ317.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...29
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