872
FXUS64 KAMA 230351
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1051 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
-REPEAT ROUNDS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK, WHERE FLASH FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
LATEST 03Z OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SHOWS SEVERAL AREAS OF MULTI-CELL
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AND THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS GENERALLY MOVING NORTH AND
NORTHEAST. ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN PANHANDLES AND POTENTIALLY
SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE WHERE CHANCES ARE THE HIGHEST, RAIN SHOULD
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION STARTING OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH
ON/OFF RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE MAIN
SET UP FOR THESE RAIN CHANCES, AS SEEN FROM THE LATEST SATELLITE
OBSERVATIONS CONTINUES TO SHOW A DEVELOPING H500 RIDGE WITH THE
MAIN AXIS INTO NEBRASKA. MEANWHILE, A DEEPENING TROUGH WINDWARD OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES WIT HITS AXIS INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC HAS RESULTED IN A PRONOUNCED CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WITH THE MAIN AXIS INTO CO/NM AND THE PANHANDLES. PWAT
VALUES WITHIN THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE.
WITH REPEAT ROUNDS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY FROM THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, LOCALIZED
FLOODING AND/OR FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
CLOSER TO THE NM STATELINE WHERE OVERALL CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN
THE HIGHEST. BUT WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PANHANDLES AS WELL. ANY ROBUST STORMS
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS, BUT IN PARTICULAR, HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES WITH TRAINING OF STORMS STILL POSE FLOODING AS THE
MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND PERSISTENT RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE
WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE WESTERN PANHANDLES
TO MID 80S IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLES.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
AS THE MAIN RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS BREAKS DOWN INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND, THE LAST OF THE RAIN CHANCES FROM THIS
MAIN SETUP WILL DECREASE GOING INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING WITH H500
WESTERLY FLOW RETURNING. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS POTENTIAL RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING BY NEXT WEEK WITH A POTENTIAL DISTURBANCE MOVING
EAST THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR AND
UPDATE THOSE RAIN CHANCES AS WE GET CLOSER TO NEXT WEEK WITH THOSE
RAIN CHANCES. BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RETURN TO NEAR
TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS COMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO START THE 00Z TAF PERIOD AT ALL TAF
SITES. MVFR CIGS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SITES STARTING
AROUND 12-13Z, AND CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOWS OVERALL SHRA CONDITIONS WITH A
PROB30 FOR TSRA FOR KAMA POTENTIALLY LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD.
OVERALL WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 5-15 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...29
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