413
FXUS64 KAMA 232335
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
635 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 448 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
- FLOOD RISK CONTINUES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY AVERAGE THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK.
- AN ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE IN THE LONG-TERM.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 448 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE CONTENT OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH PWATS IN
THE TOP 2.5% TO THE HIGHEST FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR DEPENDING ON WHAT
PART OF THE PANHANDLE REGION YOU ARE LOOKING AT. THIS MORNING
DALHART HAS RECEIVED 1.84 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH 11AM. THEY WERE ON
THE EASTERN EDGE OF A LARGER STRATIFORM AREA OF RAIN THAT EXTENDED
FROM NEW MEXICO INTO THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLE AND IS MOVING NORTH.
WPC HAS MAINTAINED A MODERATE EXCESSIVE RAIN OUTLOOK WHICH CLIPS OUR
FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES, AND A SLIGHT AND MARGINAL RISK COVERING
MOST OF THE REST OF THE AREA. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER EAST TEXAS AND A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SOUTH INTO MEXICO.
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING FUNNELED NORTH N THE FLOW PATTERN OF
THESE FEATURES AND A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS AUGMENTING THE
LIFT AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO. ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM
OROGRAPHIC LIFTING, WAA AND HEATING OF THE DAY WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NEW MEXICO TRAINING OVER AREAS THAT
HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN. AFTERNOON HEATING WILL LEAD TO
DESTABILIZATION OF THE AIR MASS OVER WEST TEXAS AND THIS WILL
PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS
WILL BE EFFICIENT HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS WITH THIS HIGHLY FAVORABLE
MOIST AIR MASS. THE MAIN AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN FORECASTED BY THE
MODELS IS FROM NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
PANHANDLES AND INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HOWEVER, HI RES CAM MODELS ARE
ALSO SHOWING HIGH PRECIP AMOUNTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST TX
PANHANDLE WITH A SEPARATE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING CONVECTION.
WHILE THE EXACT LOCATIONS OF THESE CORRIDORS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
LIKELY SHIFT AND NOT BE EXACTLY WHERE THEY ARE SHOWN NOW THE OVERALL
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING CONVECTION.
TOTAL PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE BUT IN AREAS THAT DO GET
THE HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE IMPRESSIVE BUT ALSO LIKELY HIGHLY
LOCALIZED. LOOKING AT THE DESI HREF PROBS OF 2.5 INCHES CLEARLY
SHOWS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS IS THE BEST PROBABILITY FOR THESE HIGH
AMOUNTS. THEREFORE WILL BE ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS MOST HI
PROBABILITY AREA AT THIS TIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS
AND GUIDANCE FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN AREA.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 448 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF AI IS SHOWING A MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS OVER THE NEXT WEEK. IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC, INTENSE HURRICANE POLO WILL GET CAUGHT UP IN A TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN US TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AND BRING TROPICAL
MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO TEXAS. IF THIS SCENARIO OCCURS THEN
THERE COULD BE MORE HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS. WILL
WATCH TRENDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS TO SEE IF THIS SCENARIO
CONTINUES TO REMAIN VIABLE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY TO START AT KGUY/KAMA WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS TO START AT KDHT FOR THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. AT KDHT FOR
THE FIRST FEW HOURS MAY EXPERIENCE SOME VCTS CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
MVFR CIGS. MVFR CIGS TO IFR CIGS AT TIMES WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE
BACK INTO KAMA/KGUY BETWEEN 06-12Z AND WILL REMAIN AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR TSRA
CONDITIONS AT TIMES WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE. OVERALL WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AT
5-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT TIMES.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR TXZ001-002-006.
OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR OKZ001-002.
SHORT TERM...54
LONG TERM....54
AVIATION...29
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