373
FXUS64 KAMA 240529
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1229 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
-A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NW COMBINED PANHANDLES WHERE
THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR FLOODING CONDITIONS EXIST THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.
-THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL
THOUGH FRIDAY IS POSSIBLE FOR MANY AREAS OF THE PANHANDLES.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
SO FAR THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY, AS OF THE LATEST 03Z
OBSERVATIONS FOR RAINFALL TOTALS FOR WEDNESDAY, VALUES FOR THE
PANHANDLES HAVE RANGED FROM A TRACE, TO HALF AN INCH FOR PORTIONS
OF THE EASTERN PANHANDLES, TO 1-2"+ FOR THE WESTERN COMBINED
PANHANDLES. LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUES TO
SHOW A NOTABLE PLUME OF SUB-TROICAL MOISTURE MOVING NNE IN-BETWEEN
TWO DISTINCT SYNOPTIC FEATURES: AN H500 RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND A BROAD H500 LOW CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA. AS A RESULT, REPEAT ROUNDS OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE SSW- NNE ACROSS THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES. AS WE GO TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK BY FRIDAY,
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE. THIS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY SHIFT EAST THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS MORE INTO
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PANHANDLES, INCREASING OUR RAIN CHANCES
FOR THESE AREAS COMPARED TO PAST 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER, THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD, HIGH PWAT VALUES
CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE PANHANDLES. OUR SAMPLED 9/24 00Z AMA
RAOB PWAT VALUES OF 1.29" IS IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR SEPTEMBER
CLIMO VALUES. EVENT HIGHER VALUES UP TO 1.4-1.5" IS FORECASTED FOR
THE WESTERN PANHANDLES THOUGH FRIDAY. THE MAIN FEATURE WE CONTINUE
TO WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY IS THE SHIFT OF THE MAIN AXIS OF LIFT
DOWNSTREAM OF THE MAIN H500 TROUGH AXIS, PARALLEL TO THE HIGHEST
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS. THIS COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. CURRENTLY, THE NW
COMBINED PANHANDLES HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF REPEAT ROUNDS OF
HEAVY RAIN WITH FLOODING POTENTIAL, WHERE A FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE WITH VALUES RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 70S IN THE WESTERN PANHANDLES TO LOWER 80S IN THE FAR
EASTERN PANHANDLES.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A LAST MID LEVEL WAVE TRAVERSE THE
PANHANDLES FROM WEST TO EAST THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY, AS THE
MAIN H500 RIDGE TO THE EAST FINALLY COMPRESSES. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS TROUGH, DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY TO RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND. A
DEVELOPING H500 SINUSOIDAL FLOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS COULD
BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE AT OR
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE 06Z TAF PERIOD AT KAMA AND MVFR
CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD FOR KGUY/KDHT. EITHER VCSH OR
VCTS WILL IMPACT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE FIRST 1-3 HRS OF TAF
PERIOD, FOLLOWED BY PERSISTENT -SHRA CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. ANY TSRA THAT DEVELOP WILL BE AMD AS CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER THAT THIS IS OCCURRING. OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE AT
MVFR, ESPECIALLY FOR KDHT/KGUY. OVERALL WINDS WILL RANGE FROM
SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY OF 5-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
KTS AT TIMES.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR TXZ001-002-006.
OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR OKZ001-002.
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...29
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page