881
FXUS64 KAMA 241139
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
639 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
-A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NW COMBINED PANHANDLES WHERE
THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR FLOODING CONDITIONS EXIST THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.
-THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL
THOUGH FRIDAY IS POSSIBLE FOR MANY AREAS OF THE PANHANDLES.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
SO FAR THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY, AS OF THE LATEST 03Z
OBSERVATIONS FOR RAINFALL TOTALS FOR WEDNESDAY, VALUES FOR THE
PANHANDLES HAVE RANGED FROM A TRACE, TO HALF AN INCH FOR PORTIONS
OF THE EASTERN PANHANDLES, TO 1-2"+ FOR THE WESTERN COMBINED
PANHANDLES. LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUES TO
SHOW A NOTABLE PLUME OF SUB-TROICAL MOISTURE MOVING NNE IN-BETWEEN
TWO DISTINCT SYNOPTIC FEATURES: AN H500 RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND A BROAD H500 LOW CENTERED ROUGHLY OVER NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA. AS A RESULT, REPEAT ROUNDS OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE SSW- NNE ACROSS THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES. AS WE GO TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK BY FRIDAY,
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE. THIS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY SHIFT EAST THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS MORE INTO
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PANHANDLES, INCREASING OUR RAIN CHANCES
FOR THESE AREAS COMPARED TO PAST 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER, THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD, HIGH PWAT VALUES
CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE PANHANDLES. OUR SAMPLED 9/24 00Z AMA
RAOB PWAT VALUES OF 1.29" IS IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR SEPTEMBER
CLIMO VALUES. EVENT HIGHER VALUES UP TO 1.4-1.5" IS FORECASTED FOR
THE WESTERN PANHANDLES THOUGH FRIDAY. THE MAIN FEATURE WE CONTINUE
TO WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY IS THE SHIFT OF THE MAIN AXIS OF LIFT
DOWNSTREAM OF THE MAIN H500 TROUGH AXIS, PARALLEL TO THE HIGHEST
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS. THIS COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. CURRENTLY, THE NW
COMBINED PANHANDLES HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF REPEAT ROUNDS OF
HEAVY RAIN WITH FLOODING POTENTIAL, WHERE A FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW AVERAGE WITH VALUES RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 70S IN THE WESTERN PANHANDLES TO LOWER 80S IN THE FAR
EASTERN PANHANDLES.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A LAST MID LEVEL WAVE TRAVERSE THE
PANHANDLES FROM WEST TO EAST THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY, AS THE
MAIN H500 RIDGE TO THE EAST FINALLY COMPRESSES. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS TROUGH, DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY TO RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND. A
DEVELOPING H500 SINUSOIDAL FLOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS COULD
BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE AT OR
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FAVORED TO OCCUR IN AMARILLO,
DALHART, AND GUYMON THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, THE TIMING IS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN AND MAY REQUIRE AMENDMENTS AS DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN AMARILLO, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE, MVFR CEILINGS ARE FAVORED TO CONTINUE AT DALHART AND
GUYMON THROUGH THIS MORNING, RETURNING TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A RETURN TO MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS IS FAVORED LATER
TONIGHT.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR TXZ001-002-006.
OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR OKZ001-002.
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...52
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