259
FXUS64 KAMA 241810
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
110 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
- FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. 24
HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE BEEN 2-4" WITH 88D STORM TOTAL ESTIMATES
OVER 6" BETWEEN TEXLINE AND DALHART.
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
IN MAINLY THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN REGIONS. VERY HEAVY RAIN FALL
RATES COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. IN ADDITION A LOW
END POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER (MAINLY WIND) IS POSSIBLE AS
WELL.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
AN AREA OF MODERATE RAIN IS FALLING AT MID DAY OVER THE CENTRAL TX
PANHANDLE. THIS IS MORE OF A BENEFICIAL RAIN AS THE RATES ARE NOT
SUFFICIENT FOR FLASH FLOODING. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 17Z
IS SHOWING CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED THE RAIN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE TX PANHANDLE WHILE AREAS TO THE EAST ARE IN THE SUNSHINE. THIS
INSOLATION IS DESTABILIZATING THIS MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS. SO
DESPITE POOR LAPSE RATES AND WEAK SHEAR...FORCING FROM DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING AND OUTFLOWS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NOTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THE PRECIP SHIELD EASTWARD TOWARDS THE CDS AREA....AND SUSPECT THIS
WILL BE THE LIKELY AREA FOR THE FIRST DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 1-3
HOURS. ACTUALLY JUST LOOKING AT THE LATEST RADAR IMAGE WE ARE SEEING
SOME DEVELOPMENT ALREADY OCCURING IN HALL COUNTY TX (JUST WEST OF
CDS). LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A FETCH OF
TROPICAL AIR BEING ADVECTED NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO WEST TX WHILE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING
ACROSS THE AREA. THE RAINFALL RATES FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE SOME FLASH FLOODING AS PWAT'S IN THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE IS 1.4 TO ALMOST 1.8"...WHICH IS 95% OR BETTER FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. WHILE THERE IS A LOW END THREAT FOR SEVERE WINDS THIS
EVENING THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING. ADDITONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM OVERNIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE BRINGING MORE RAIN TO THE AREA. ON
FRIDAY SCATTERED STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON
OVER THE AREA WITH HEAVY RAIN ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S WILL BREAK DOWN
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IN EAST TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND..AND THE
MULTI DAY HEAVY RAIN EVENT WILL BE COMING TO AN END. AS THIS OCCURS
WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOUT 10 DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO THE UPPER 80S AS WE BEGIN TO DRY OUT. SPC DOES HAVE A DAY 3
MARGINAL RISK OVER OUR EASTERN AREAS BUT THIS IS A LOW PROBABILITY
SITUATION AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR
SATURDAY. IN THE EXTENDED MODELS STILL SHOWING A TROUGH DIGGING ITNO
THE SOUTHWEST US. DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS FOR
NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF WANTS TO PICK UP THE REMNANTS OF THE HURRICANE
AND BRING THE MOISTURE ACROSS TEXAS WHILE THE GFS SHOWS THE TROUGH
MISSING THE HURRICANE AND IT SLOWLY WANDERS IN THE EAST PACIFIC. IN
ANY CASE COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS DROPPING BACK
INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80 IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
SHOWERS SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END FOR AWHILE ACROSS THE
AMA/GUY/DHT TAF SITES. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL PCPN IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS EVENING WHICH COULD AFFECT THE TAF SITES FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VSBY WILL BE REDUCED IN SHOWERS
AND TSTMS AND MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING. WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS NEAR ANY
TSTM...AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING WINDS TO GET TOO OUT OF HAND.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR TXZ001-002-006.
OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR OKZ001-002.
SHORT TERM...54
LONG TERM....54
AVIATION...54
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