904
FXUS64 KAMA 251116
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
616 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 914 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
-THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE FOR THE PANHANDLES THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT, WHERE LOCALIZED FLOODING AND STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
-ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY RETURN TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 914 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
LATEST 03Z OBSERVATIONS SHOWS A CORRIDOR OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE
ADVECTION RESULTING IN AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM HEREFORD TO
AMARILLO TO NEAR PANHANDLE. A NOTABLE SHIFT OF THE HEAVY RAIN
CORRIDOR FROM THE WESTERN PANHANDLES THE PRIOR DAY. THIS IS DUE
TO THE LOW AMPLITUDE H500 RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
KANSAS ACTING LIKE A STEERING MECHANISM FOR MID LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS DOWNSTREAM OF A BROAD H500 TROUGH AXIS OVER SOUTHERN
ARIZONA ADVECTING GOOD LIFT AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. A
SERIES OF MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
EASTERN NM AND THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND MOVE NORTH- NORTHEAST IN
THE MAIN SYNOPTIC REGION OF LIFT INTO THE PANHANDLES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. THEN AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE TO THE EATS BEGINS
TO COMPRESS, THE MAIN H500 TROUGH AXIS TO THE WEST WILL PROGRESS
EAST-NORTHEAST BACK INTO THE MAIN STEERING FLOW. CONDITIONS WILL
DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES GOING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. BEFORE CLEARING OUT BY SATURDAY MORNING, WITH
PWAT VALUES ON FRIDAY TO CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE,
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALREADY SATURDAY FROM PREVIOUS DAYS OF
RAINFALL. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
70S IN THE WESTERN PANHANDLES TO LOWER 80S IN THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES. WHEN CONDITIONS DRY OUT BY SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR ALL OF THE PANHANDLES.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 914 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
A SECOND SW-NE H500 RIDGE SHOULD BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY CONTINUING TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS.
LATEST GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE ARE INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
STORMS GOING TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS ANOTHER MID
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE. A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
COULD BRING TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW AVERAGE WITH ANOTHER TASTE OF
FALL POTENTIALLY ON THE HORIZON.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR AMARILLO, BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO MIX IN THROUGHOUT THIS
MORNING.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED THIS MORNING FOR AMARILLO, DALHART,
AND GUYMON. CEILINGS AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT AND
DECREASE, RESPECTIVELY, THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL ULTIMATELY PREVAIL BY THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ001-002-006.
OK...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR OKZ001-002.
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...52
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