130
FXUS64 KAMA 251857
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
157 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
- HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING ACROSS THE AREA WINDING DOWN. IMPRESSIVE
24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS WITH CANYON THE BIG WINNER AT OVER 4.5".
- POTENTIAL FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT
IN A CORRIDOR FROM SOUTHWEST OF AMARILLO NORTHEAST TO LIPSCOMB
COUNTY.
- A DIGGING TROUGH INTERACTING WITH THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE POLO
COULD SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER HEAVY RAIN EVENT ACROSS THE ARE
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING THE DWINDLING
AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS TROUGH WILL HELP BREAK DOWN THE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER EAST TEXAS AND IN ITS WAKE ANOTHER TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT. LARGE
SCALE OUTFLOW IS ARCING FROM NEAR CDS TO NEAR MAF. WITH A WORKED
OVER AIR MASS AND STABLE CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE IT SHOULD TAKE
SEVERAL HOURS FOR ANY RECOVERY TO TAKE PLACE. THEREFORE A PARTLY
SUNNY AND DRY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IS EXPECTED. THE NAM IS
SHOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS
COULD GENERATE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT
GENERALLY FROM THE NORTHEAST PANHANDLE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE
AMARILLO AREA. THERE ARE SPATIAL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE HRRR AND
RRFS HOWEVER THEY BOTH GENERATE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. SPC DOES
HAVE A MARGINAL RISK ON SATURDAY FOR MAINLY THE SOUTHEASTERN
PANHANDLE. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE WIND BUT IN THIS SITUATION
SOME HAIL CAN'T BE RULED OUT. IF THIS SCENARIO DOES PLAY OUT THEN
THE ANTICIPATION IS FOR IT TO DEVELOP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING....AND PROBABLY NOT LAST TOO LONG IN OUR AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND THIS WEEKEND ABOUT 10 DEGREES FROM WHERE
THEY ARE TODAY. THIS MEANS HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S
EXPECTED SATURDAY THRU MONDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
INTERESTING LONG TERM FORECAST SHAPING UP AS A COMBINATION OF
FACTORS COULD COME TOGETHER TO PRODUCE ANOTHER HEAVY RAIN EVENT
ACROSS THE AREA. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A SOLUTION
OF A A DIGGING TROUGH MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND HURRICANE
POLO GETTING CAUGHT UP IN THE FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. WILL
MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT AT THIS TIME A POTENT DIGGING
TROUGH AND POTENTIAL TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF A
HURRICANE COULD IMPACT THE AREA BY AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMEPRATURES WILL COOL BACK INTO THE 70S IN THE TUESDAY THRU
THURSDAY TIME FRAME.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
CIGS WILL IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AT THE TAF SITES WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOUTH WINDS WILL OSCILLATE BETWEEN SOUTHERLY
AND SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT AT 8-12KT. IF THERE ARE OVERNIGHT
STORMS THOSE COULD LOWER CIGS/VSBY IN LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN.
ONCE THESE STORM DISSIPATE OR CLEAR THE AREA...BEFORE 12Z
SATURDAY...THE VSBY AND CIGS WILL GO QUICKLY BACK TO VFR.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KP
LONG TERM....KP
AVIATION...KP
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