836
FXUS64 KAMA 261104
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
604 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
-THINGS SHOULD QUIET DOWN GOING INTO SATURDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN TX
PANHANDLE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WITH HAVE
A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
-RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE MONDAY AND PICK UP GREATLY TO AROUND 70
PERCENT ACROSS THE BOARD GOING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR FLASH FLOODING LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY, EXPECTING WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S UNDER A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS AFTERNOON, A
SURFACE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BRINGING SOME
SLIGHTLY BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
LOWER TDS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
SURFACE TROUGH MAY STALL IN THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE AND PROVIDE
A FOCAL POINT FOR POTENTIAL LIFT AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN TX PANHANDLE. THESE STORMS ARE MAINLY EXPECTED IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE SUN GOES DOWN IF THEY DO IN FACT
FIRE OFF BEFORE SUNSET. A MARGINAL RISK EXIST FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP UNDER MUCAPE VALUES UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG
COMBINED WITH BULK SHEAR POTENTIALLY UP TO 25 KTS. THIS IS ALL
CONTINGENT ON THE ACTUAL PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH
COULD POTENTIALLY PUSH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTION FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST DOWN TOWARDS THE CHILDRESS, TX TO ALTUS, OK AREA.
GOING INTO SUNDAY, EVEN DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE IS PROGGED TO PUSH
IN FROM THE WEST, DROPPING DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 50S. WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS TURNING
AROUND THE CLOCK UNDER A WEAK SURFACE LOW. WINDS ARE PROGGED TO
BECOME PREDOMINATELY SOUTHERLY BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STAY OVER THE
COMBINED PANHANDLES INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER, THIS TIME FALLING UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO INCREASE PACIFIC
MOISTURE TRANSPORTING UP THROUGH EL PASO AND INTO THE FA. ANOTHER
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S IS PROGGED FOR
MONDAY. THIS WILL ALL CHANGE WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE W TO NW. AT THE SAME TIME THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE POLO
IS EXPECTED TO BE A DEPRESSION CENTERED NEAR EL PASO BY WED MORNING.
THIS WILL ADD TO THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE BEING PUMPED INTO PARTS OF
NM AND WEST TEXAS. THOUGH POPS BEGIN TO RETURN MON AFTERNOON/NIGHT,
POPS ARE EXPECTED INCREASE GOING INTO TUE NIGHT INTO WED. CURRENTLY
THE NBM IS GIVING POPS IN THE 70-80 RANGE STARTING TUE AFTERNOON AND
LASTING INTO WED MORNING. LREF PROBS FOR ONE INCH OF RAIN ACROSS THE
FA ARE NEAR 30% WHILE THE NBM PROBS FOR AT LEAST ONE INCH OF RAIN IN
24 HOURS IS AS HIGH AS 60%. SHIFTS IN THE PROJECTED TRACK OF THE
UPPER TROUGH COMING FROM THE WEST AND POLO MAY SHIFT WHERE THE BEST
RAIN FALLS, BUT CURRENT SIGNALS GIVING SOME HOPE TO FURTHER DECREASE
THE RAIN DEFICITS SEEN ACROSS THE COMBINED PANHANDLES THIS YEAR.
GOING INTO WED AFTERNOON AS THIS AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEMS MOVE OFF,
POPS BEGIN TO DROP TO 30 LATE WED THEN NEAR 20 FOR THU. THANKS TO
THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND RAIN, TUE INTO FRI AFTERNOON HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 559 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGHOUT TODAY AT ALL TAF SITES. WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE MORNING AT 10-15KTS, WEAKENING THIS
AFTERNOON TO BELOW 10KTS.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...52
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