002
FXUS64 KAMA 272256
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
556 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
- FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH HEAVY RAIN
AND FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS.
- POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY IN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE
- DRIER AND COOLER ON FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
QUIET WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. MID DAY SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE AREA AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S. MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING
OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS AN UPSTREAM TROUGH
NOW JUST OFF THE WEST COAST DIGS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ONE MORE DAY OF NICE WEATHER
TOMORROW WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
MONDAY NIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE RAPIDLY
OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF THE PANHANDLES.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD EVENT STILL APPEAR ON TRACK
EVEN THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE. WPC
CURRENTLY GOING WITH A 55% MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN TUESDAY
FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES (INCLUDING THE
AMARILLO AREA). WPC HAS SUGGESTED THIS WILL LIKELY BECOME A HIGH
RISK AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. THE REMNANTS OF FORMER
HURRICANE POLO WILL GET CAUGHT UP IN THE DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERN
US TROUGH AND BE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY
TUESDAY EVENING. WITH THE WESTWARD SHIFT IN GUIDANCE, AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF A DRY SLOT AFFECTING SOME OF THE AREA IT IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME OF THIS EXCESSIVE RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD
AREA WILL BECOME FOCUSED FURTHER WEST OR NORTHWEST OF THE REGION.
HIGH END TOTALS SUGGEST 3-5" WITH LOWER END TOTALS AROUND 1".
THEREFORE WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW AND RE-
ASSESS THE GUIDANCE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING TO BETTER REFINE
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY AREA FOR HEAVY RAIN.
BESIDES THE HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD POTENTIAL THERE IS THE CHANCE
FOR SOME ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. PARAMETERS WOULD SUPPORT SOME MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER
SO WILL MAINTAIN SITUATIONAL AWARENESS ON THIS ASPECT OF THE
STORM.... BUT TO BE CLEAR THE HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING POTENTIAL IS
THE BIGGEST CONCERN. THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SWING THROUGH THE
AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL LEAD TO A DRIER AND COOLER
DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE
REGION.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 554 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
KAMA IS EXPECTED TO STAY VFR THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. KGUY AND
KDHT ARE A DIFFERENT STORY, WITH A POTENTIAL TO SEE BKN CIGS BELOW
1K FT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHERLY
AND PICK UP TO 10 KTS IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KP
LONG TERM....KP
AVIATION...03
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