506
FXUS64 KAMA 140548
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1248 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITIES EXIST THIS AFTERNOON
AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES. THE
STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS,
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL, AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
- EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS LIKELY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY MAINLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TX PANHANDLE. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ROLL INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT THE PROBABILITY REMAINS LOW.
- CHANCES ARE INCREASING FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE SATURDAY
MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. SEE THE MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT DAY 1.
WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE THETA-E AXIS LOOKS TO BE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE AND POINTS EAST. PRELIMINARY QPF VALUES
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY IN THE 2-3" RANGE AS AN EVENT TOTALS FOR
THESE LOCATIONS. AREAS FURTHER WEST WILL GET THEIR CHANCE AT
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY, THOUGH FLOODING APPEARS
LESS LIKELY DUE TO MODEL INCONSISTENCY OF REPEAT ROUNDS OF RAIN
FOR THESE AREAS. STILL, GIVEN HOW HIGH OUR SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT IS
FROM THE RECORD RAINFALL BACK IN SEPTEMBER, LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF
THE SOUTHEAST WON'T NEED AS MUCH RAIN TO FLOOD, ESPECIALLY IN
URBAN AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS. CONCERNING OUR SEVERE POTENTIAL,
THERE'S STILL A LOW CHANCE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FOR STORMS TO
BE SEVERE IN THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES, BARRING OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES. DESTABILIZATION FROM SUNRISE TO SUNSET WILL
ALLOW FOR A FEW STORMS TO GROW UPSCALE, BUT THEIR SUSTAINABILITY
IS STILL QUESTIONABLE GIVEN MODEL INCONSISTENCY WITH ORGANIZATION.
DURING THE MORNING, IF STORMS REMAIN ELEVATED, HAIL WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARD. HOWEVER, IF STORMS BECOME SURFACE BASED, (WHICH IS
ESPECIALLY LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING), ALL HAZARDS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR DURING THE DAY WILL STILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL PRODUCTION, THOUGH THESE CELLS WILL
LIKELY BE CLUSTERED TOGETHER INSTEAD OF REMAINING DISCRETE.
RECENT 12Z CAMS ARE PICKING UP ON A FASTER PROGRESSION
OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO SUBSIDE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MUCH LOWER
RAIN CHANCES HEADING INTO THURSDAY.
RANGEL
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF OUR AREA AND THE COLD FRONT
FULLY PUSHES THROUGH, A STABLE AIRMASS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL BE LEFT IN ITS WAKE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. HIGHS MAY
START IN THE 70S AND 60S ON THURSDAY, BUT BY FRIDAY WE MAY NOT
EVEN ESCAPE THE 50S DURING THE DAY TIME. THIS WEEKEND, BELOW
AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE IN THE 60S AND 70S. THE
LATEST 13Z NBM HAS INTRODUCE MORE FREEZING (<32F) TEMPERATURES
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES SATURDAY MORNING, WHILE THE REST OF THE
CWA COULD RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD REMAIN ABSENT DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT.
RANGEL
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES, THOUGH SHORTLY AFTER 06Z
HOUR, KGUY MAY DROP CEILINGS AND GO TO MVFR. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FOG, WITH HIGHER CHANCES AT KDHT AND KGUY,
BUT CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLES AND LOOKS TO BRING
PRECIP CHANCES AND LOWER CLOUDS AS INDICATED IN THE TAFS, HIGHEST
CHANCES OF PRECIP BEGIN SHOWING UP IN THE AFTERNOON.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR TXZ010-014-015-019-020.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...52
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