824
FXUS64 KAMA 141825
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
125 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLES THROUGH THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE PROBABILITY FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
- LOWS IN THE UPPER-20S TO MID-30S IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH
MAY LEAD TO FROST OR FREEZE HEADLINES BEING REQUIRED.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS SET UP OVER THE FOUR CORNER STATES THIS
EVENING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SET UP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US.
WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION, WAVES OF VORTICITY
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS. THIS WILL FAVOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS, MOSTLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. HOWEVER, THERE
ARE COMPLEXITIES IN THIS FORECAST THAT WILL AFFECT THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS EVENING, A COLD FRONT IS MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH WHILE A
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS APPARENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST
OF THE NIGHT WHILE THE REST OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES STAY DRY DUE
TO A GENERAL LACK OF FORCING. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
AROUND 4 AM WHEN ANOTHER ROUND OF UPPER-LEVEL FORCING MOVES IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN NORTHWESTERN
TEXAS AND MOVE INTO THE CWA AROUND DAWN. SOME CAMS ARE SUGGESTING
GROWTH INTO A CLUSTER, OR EVEN AN MCS, AFTER SUNRISE AND INTO THE
MORNING HOURS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS.
ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE FAVORED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
POTENTIALLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS VORTICITY STREAMS THROUGH.
BARRING A SIGNIFICANT BREAK BETWEEN ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS, THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FLOODING / FLASH FLOODING. THIS IS DUE TO VERY
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES, BETWEEN 1.75" TO 2.00", TALL /
SKINNY CAPE, AND ALREADY SATURATED SOIL.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, EXPECT THERE TO VARIOUS MESOSCALE AND SYNOPTIC
FEATURES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THIS INCLUDES A STALLED FRONT
(LIKELY TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE CANADIAN RIVER VALLEY) AND AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. MEANWHILE, THE JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SET UP IN A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST/NORTH-
NORTHEAST FASHION ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO EASTERN
COLORADO. THIS PUTS THE PANHANDLES IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
FORCING, IN ADDITION TO THE 700MB AND 500MB VORTICITY MOVING IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES FOR AREAS NOT ALREADY STABILIZED FROM MORNING
CONVECTION (DIRECTLY OR INDIRECTLY). GENERALLY LESS LIMITING FACTORS
EXIST IN THE WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES, BUT AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE COULD EXTEND INTO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLES AS
WELL. THE THREAT FOR ANY KIND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT WILL REALLY DEPEND ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MESOSCALE/SYNOPTIC
FEATURES AND THE ABILITY TO DESTABILIZE SINCE THERE IS NO QUESTION
THAT WIND SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION.
GIVEN THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SLOW-
MOVING UPDRAFTS, LARGE HAIL SEEMS QUITE UNLIKELY (BARRING
SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION) WHILE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE
MORE LIKELY HAZARD, IN A RELATIVE SENSE, THOUGH IT WOULD STILL
DEPEND UPON DESTABILIZATION.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS DRY AIR
ALOFT MOVES IN. A POTENT COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
VANDEN BOSCH
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EAST INTO THE GREAT PLAINS
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A POTENT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE
PANHANDLES. A STEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH A 40-45 KT LLJ. THIS WILL CREATE WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES ON THURSDAY AS COOLER AIR SURGES IN. A WIND ADVISORY MAY
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE NORTHWESTERN
COMBINED PANHANDLES.
A MUCH COOLER-THAN-AVERAGE DAY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S, THOUGH THERE ARE SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT SUGGEST HIGHS
COULD BE IN THE 40S FOR PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. AT THIS TIME, THAT IS A VERY LOW
PROBABILITY (AROUND 10%). WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THROUGHOUT THE DAY
BUT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. FROST AND FREEZE PRODUCTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS
LOWS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE UPPER-20S TO MID-30S.
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEASTERN
US SATURDAY MORNING WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
WESTERN US WITH A CUT-OFF TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH POTENTIALLY
BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE PANHANDLES. DEPENDING ON THE
QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN, WE COULD SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN INTO THE REGION.
VANDEN BOSCH
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED NOW
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ALL TERMINALS. CEILINGS ARE NOT FORECAST
TO RISE ABOVE 1,000 FT UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING. FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT, BUT MORE LIKELY FOR KGUY AND KAMA.
TOMORROW LATE MORNING, ONCE SKIES CLEAR OUT, SURFACE WINDS WILL
BECOME BREEZY AND EVENTUALLY WIND TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
RANGEL
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ010-014-015-019-020.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...55
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