938
FXUS64 KAMA 142314
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
614 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLES FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THE PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
CHANCES FOR FLOODING REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TX
PANHANDLE.
- LOWS RANGING IN THE UPPER-20S TO MID-30S ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR THE COMBINED PANHANDLE. FROST AND FREEZE PRODUCTS ARE
LIKELY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
FLOODING IS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST WITH ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION EXACERBATING PREVIOUSLY FLOODED AREAS. SOME
LOCATIONS IN COLLINGSWORTH COUNTY HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED OVER 5" OF
RAIN, WITH FAVORABLE CHANCES FOR AN ADDITIONAL 2" TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE COMBINED PANHANDLES ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO RECEIVE AS MUCH RAIN, BUT PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED AREAS TO RECEIVE OVER 1" OF RAIN TONIGHT.
STILL, FLASH FLOODING IS LESS LIKELY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
PANHANDLES DUE TO SCATTERED STORM COVERAGE AND FAST MOVING STORMS.
THE SEVERE THREAT TODAY WILL BE LIMITED TO AREAS AHEAD OF THE
CURRENTLY STALLED COLD FRONT. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL, BUT IF STORMS CAN BECOME SURFACE BASED,
DAMAGING WIND CHANCES ALSO INCREASE. THE TORNADO THREAT IS MUCH
LOWER ACROSS OUR AREA TOADY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, DESPITE THE
HIGH 0-1 KM BULK SHEAR AND HELICITY ACROSS THE CWA. TORNADO
CHANCES MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY IF SUPERCELL PRODUCTION CAN BE
ACHIEVED ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT. TONIGHT, RAIN CHANCES WILL
SHIFT EAST INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA ALONGSIDE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIKELY BE LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM
BEFORE WE CLEAR OUT LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
TOMORROW, CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY CLEAR OUT AND WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE SHARPLY FROM THE NORTH. HIGHS MAY STAY IN THE 60S WITH A
FEW AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE REACHING THE LOWER 70S.
STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE COMBINED
PANHANDLES WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. EVEN 50 MPH WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN OUR NORTHWEST ZONES, BUT CHANCES ARE LOW TO MEDIUM FOR
NOW. CHANCES FOR 50 MPH WINDS MAY INCREASE WITH FUTURE FORECAST
PACKAGES.
RANGEL
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
OUR COOLING TREND CONTINUES IN THE EXTENDED AS OUR COLD FRONT IS
REINFORCED WITH STRONG, NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE FA ON FRIDAY.
IN THE MORNING, LOWS MAY ALREADY BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE NORTH, WHILE THE REST OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE STAYS IN
THE 40S. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE 50S AREA
WIDE.
SATURDAY MORNING, THE NBM CONTINUES TO TREND COOLER WITH SOME
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ALREADY PLACING THE WHOLE CWA AT OR BELOW
FREEZING. OUR CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS LOWS WILL DROP TO THE UPPER
20S IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA RANGES IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S. FREEZE AND FROST PRODUCTS ARE BEING CONSIDERED AND
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER
BACK INTO THE 70S FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY ABSENT, HOWEVER, LONG RANGE MODEL
SIGNALS ARE ALLUDING TO ANOTHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN CONUS AND WE MAY RECEIVE THE MOISTURE
NECESSARY FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO RETURN BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.
RANGEL
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
LIFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. LATE OVERNIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR BEFORE ULTIMATELY GOING INTO VFR AT KAMA AND
KDHT THROUGH THE MORNING. KGUY IS EXPECTED TO GO TO VFR IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW. WINDS EXPECTED TO PICK UP THROUGHOUT THE
DAY.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR TXZ010-014-015-019-020.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...52
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