454
FXUS64 KAMA 151136
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
636 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
- BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH
WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY APPROACHING 50 MPH, PARTICULARLY IN THE
NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES.
- LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO DIP BELOW
FREEZING IN PORTIONS OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES AND MAY LEAD TO
FROST OR FREEZE PRODUCTS BEING ISSUED.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE HOLDING ONTO PRECIPITATION CHANCES A
LITTLE BIT LONGER, LASTING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
CURRENTLY, A CUTOFF LOW IS ANALYZED OVER COLORADO. AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES, THE LOW WILL TRAVEL EAST AND BE INGESTED BY A STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A SURFACE LOW POSITIONED
OVER THE TX/NM BORDER WILL ALSO BE MOVING INLINE WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF LOW, THOUGH IT WILL HAVE A MORE NORTHEASTERLY
TRAJECTION, BRINGING IT THROUGH THE PANHANDLES. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN AND THROUGH
THE AREA TODAY. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
DRIER CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY
NIGHT.
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND AN
ASSOCIATED LLJ WITH 40-50KT WINDS WILL DRIVE BREEZY CONDITIONS AT
THE SURFACE. WE WILL BE CONSIDERING WIND ADVISORIES FOR AT LEAST
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST COMBINED PANHANDLES.
THURSDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID 60S IN
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES, WHILE THE
SOUTHESTERN CORNER OF THE TX PANHANDLE WILL PEAK NEAR 70. THURSDAY
NIGHT, THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PANHANDLES LOOK TO HAVE LOW
TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S WHILE THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE TX PANHANDLES DROPS TO THE MID 40S.
ABDULLAYEV/VANDEN BOSCH
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE PROGRESSING OFF TO THE
EAST, WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY
QUITE COOL FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S ACROSS THE
COMBINED PANHANDLES. FRIDAY NIGHT'S LOW TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH
FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND MAY EVEN DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S IN THE
NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES, FROST AND FREEZE PRODUCTS MAY
BE NEEDED. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN AND A CUTOFF LOW MOVES OVER THE
SOUTHWEST US, WE ARE EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY WARM UP
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO STICK WITH US THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK,
THOUGH SOME OPERATIONAL MODELS WANT TO INITIALIZE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER COLORADO PUTTING US IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY FOR SOME PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, THE OTHER MODELS DO NOT
AGREE WITH THIS SOLUTION, AND A LOT OF VARIABLES REMAIN UNSETTLED.
WE WILL BE WATCHING THIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND ADJUST THE
FORECAST AS NEEDED.
MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK, A DEEP TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC COAST WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE OVER THE WESTERN US AND MOVE EAST. EXACT IMPACTS ARE NOT KNOWN
AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER, IT IS ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WE WILL WATCH
OVER THE SEVERAL DAYS TO SEE HOW IT PROGRESSES.
ABDULLAYEV/VANDEN BOSCH
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
IFR AND LIFR CIGS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING. VSBY HAS IMPROVED FROM LATE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT HAS
PROGRESSED THRU MOST OF THE PANHANDLES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
FAR SOUTHEAST AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL SOME PATCHY LOW
VSBY ON THE BORDER OF OUR CWA WITH THESE BORDER OBSERVATIONS
SHOWING 1 1/2 TO 3SM VSBY. SO SOME PATCHY LOW VSBY IS POSSIBLE FOR
A COUPLE MORE HOURS. EXPECT CIGS TO IMPROVE BY MID DAY AND THEN
THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE STRONG NORTH WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE
NORTHWESTERN AREAS....INCLUDING DALHART COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 45KT
TODAY WITH 40KT POSSIBLE INTO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...KP
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