276
FXUS64 KAMA 160516
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1216 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
- BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT AND
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY FRIDAY WITH WIND GUSTS REACHING UP TO 40
MPH.
- LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO REACH OR DIP
BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL, CUTOFF LOW HAS BEEN INGESTED BY THE LARGER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND IS CONTINUING TO MOVE EASTWARD. WINDS AT THE
SURFACE ARE GOING TO CONTINUE TO BE NORTHERLY AND BREEZY. THE
STRONGEST WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED, THOUGH THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW GUSTS TO REACH 40 MPH THROUGH FRIDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN TX PANHANDLE.
DRY CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED AS PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE
AREA AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE CALMER ON SATURDAY, HOWEVER, THE
NORTHWESTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES MAY BE A BIT BREEZIER THAN THE
REST OF THE REGION, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS REACHING UP AROUND 20
MPH.
SATURDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW FREEZING FOR
MUCH OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES AND AREAS EXPECTED TO REACH OR DIP
BELOW FREEZING ARE UNDER A FREEZE WATCH. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
FOR THE ISSUANCE OF A FREEZE WARNING.
ABDULLAYEV/MECCARIELLO/VANDEN BOSCH
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK LOOK TO STEADILY
INCREASE AS A RIDGE SETS UP AND DOMINATES THE UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN. A CUTOFF LOW WILL SETUP OVER THE SOUTHWEST US AND WILL WORK
WITH THE RIDGE TO SWITCH OUR WINDS FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY,
AIDING IN THE WARM UP. BY MIDWEEK, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CONTINUING TO BE ANALYZED BY SOME OPERATIONAL
MODELS, BRINGING A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME, BUT LOW POPS
HAVE BEEN INCLUDED FOR THAT PERIOD TO REFLECT THE POSSIBILITY.
TEMPERATURES ALSO LOOK TO DECREASE UPON THE PASSING OF THIS
SHORTWAVE.
OTHERWISE, THE NEXT MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEM BEING WATCHED IS A DEEP
TROUGH THAT WILL COME OFF THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND RACE EASTWARD.
CURRENT INITIALIZATIONS OF THIS SYSTEM SHOW THE PANHANDLES IN A
FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, DUE TO HOW FAR OUT
THIS IS, EXACT TRACK AND DEPTH OF THE TROUGH IS NOT VERY WELL KNOWN
AND WILL BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ABDULLAYEV/MECCARIELLO/VANDEN BOSCH
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
REMAIN BREEZY UNTIL LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON. 30 KTS OF LLWS IS
EXPECTED AT KAMA AND KGUY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD, AND IS POSSIBLE AT
KDHT AROUND THE SAME TIMES, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ADD TO
TAFS.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
TXZ001>014-016>018-317.
OK...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
OKZ001>003.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52
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