092
FXUS64 KAMA 161713
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1213 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
- BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT AND
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY FRIDAY WITH WIND GUSTS REACHING UP TO 40
MPH.
- LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO REACH OR DIP
BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT TODAY AS A COLD AIRMASS
SETTLES IN AND COLD AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD. STRONG,
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS BOUND TO THE 50S TODAY. WIND GUSTS IN
SOME AREAS THIS AFTERNOON COULD GET AS HIGH AS 45 MPH, BUT ARE MORE
LIKELY TO STAY IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE. TONIGHT, A SURFACE HIGH MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND WILL SHARPLY DROP WIND SPEEDS.
THIS COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO RADIATIONAL COOLING
ACROSS THE CWA. FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND FROST DEVELOPMENT ARE
EXPECTED AS A RESULT. THE NBM AND HIRES MODELS SUGGEST TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE NORTH, WHILE
THE SOUTH WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. HIGH PRESSURE DOES NOT STAY
SETTLED OVER THE REGION. LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY, A
SURFACE LOW WILL SETUP OVER SOUTHEAST CO. AS A RESULT, WIND SPEEDS
WILL RAMP UP IN OUR NORTHWEST ZONES. HOWEVER, THE WIND DIRECTION
WILL RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA. HIGHS
TOMORROW WILL INCREASE TO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S, WITH MID TO
UPPER 60S MORE LIKELY WHERE WINDS ARE STRONGEST IN THE NORTH.
RANGEL
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK LOOK TO STEADILY
INCREASE AS A RIDGE SETS UP AND DOMINATES THE UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN. A CUTOFF LOW WILL SETUP OVER THE SOUTHWEST US AND WILL WORK
WITH THE RIDGE TO SWITCH OUR WINDS FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY,
AIDING IN THE WARM UP. BY MIDWEEK, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CONTINUING TO BE ANALYZED BY SOME OPERATIONAL
MODELS, BRINGING A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME, BUT LOW POPS
HAVE BEEN INCLUDED FOR THAT PERIOD TO REFLECT THE POSSIBILITY.
TEMPERATURES ALSO LOOK TO DECREASE UPON THE PASSING OF THIS
SHORTWAVE.
OTHERWISE, THE NEXT MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEM BEING WATCHED IS A DEEP
TROUGH THAT WILL COME OFF THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND RACE EASTWARD.
CURRENT INITIALIZATIONS OF THIS SYSTEM SHOW THE PANHANDLES IN A
FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, DUE TO HOW FAR OUT
THIS IS, EXACT TRACK AND DEPTH OF THE TROUGH IS NOT VERY WELL KNOWN
AND WILL BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
ABDULLAYEV/MECCARIELLO/VANDEN BOSCH
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL SITES. STRONG
WINDS ALSO PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THEY WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 18Z PERIOD.
RANGEL
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ001>014-
016>018-317.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ015-019-020.
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR OKZ001>003.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...55
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