749
FXUS64 KAMA 171149
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
649 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
- FREEZING CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE PANHANDLES, AND FROST
CONDITIONS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE ELSE.
- DRY, GRADUAL WARMING, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE
COMING DAYS.
ABDULLAYEV
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
AFTER A COLD MORNING, HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REBOUND INTO THE MID
60S IN THE NORTHWESTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES, WHILE THE SOUTHEASTERN
TX PANHANDLE WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S. A SURFACE TROUGH
BUILDS IN EASTERN COLORADO THAT WILL SWITCH SURFACE WIND DIRECTIONS
TO SOUTHERLY. WINDS WILL BE GREATEST IN THE NW PANHANDLES DUE THEIR
LOCATION IN REFERENCE TO THE SURFACE LOW, ALLOWING FOR GREATER WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND DIURNAL MIXING. THIS TREND CONTINUES THROUGH
SUNDAY, WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND GRADUAL WARMING FOR ALL AREAS. WINDS
WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD, GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE, AS THE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS AND SHIFTS SLIGHTLY
SOUTHEAST.
ABDULLAYEV/VANDEN BOSCH
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
EARLY NEXT WEEK, A WEAK, CUTOFF LOW IS STILL BEING ANALYZED IN
LONGER RANGE CAMS AND GLOBAL MODELS, HOWEVER, IT IS NOW TRACKING TOO
FAR WEST TO KEEP THE PANHANDLES IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR
PRECIPITATION. DESPITE BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION DURING THIS PERIOD,
THE WESTWARD SHIFT LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION OCCURRING
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES, WHICH IS REFLECTED IN OUR POPS.
LATE NEXT WORK WEEK, LONG RANGE MODELS ARE STILL DECIPHERING WHAT
OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL DO. AS IT STANDS, A DEEP TROUGH WILL
ENTER THE WESTERN US AND TRACK EASTWARD. OPERATIONAL MODELS FAVOR
OUR REGION FOR POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION, HOWEVER, THERE ARE SEVERAL
DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THEM. SOME SHOW THE TROUGH NOT BEING AS DEEP,
AND KEEPS POSITIVE VORTICITY MAXIMA AND THE BEST MOISTURE OUTSIDE OF
THE PANHANDLES. OTHERS DEPICT THE PANHANDLES IN THE IDEAL LOCATION
OF BOTH POSITIVE VORITICITY MAXIMA AND MOISTURE, LEADING TO A
STRONGER SIGNAL OF PRECIPITATION. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS MEDIUM
CHANCES OF AT LEAST 0.1" QPF AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, HIGH UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS IN SYSTEM TIMING AND IMPACT MAGNITUDE GIVEN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST LEAD TIME. AS SUCH, WE WILL BE WATCHING TO SEE HOW MODELS
RESOLVE THE TROUGH IN THE COMING DAYS AND ADJUST THE FORECAST AS
NEEDED.
ABDULLAYEV/VANDEN BOSCH
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND INTO SUNDAY WITH NO SIGNIFCANT WEATHER
EXPECTED. BREEZY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED IN
CIMARRON AND DALLAM COUNTIES. FOR SUNDAY THOSE GUSTY WINDS WILL
EXTEND A LITTLE BIT FURTHER SOUTH BUT OTHERWISE QUIET CONDITIONS
AT THE TERMINALS.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ001>014-
016>018-317.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ015-019-020.
OK...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR OKZ001>003.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...KP
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