839
FXUS64 KAMA 172342
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
642 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
- FROST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AGAIN TONIGHT
- MOSTLY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT WEEK, WITH
RAIN CHANCES POTENTIALLY RETURNING TOWARDS THE WEEKEND
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
QUIETER WEATHER HAS SETTLED IN FOR THE PANHANDLES REGION THIS
WEEKEND, AS OBSERVATIONAL DATA DEPICT RIDGING ALOFT DRAPED ATOP THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL
TOMORROW, AS MODELS SHOW TROUGHING AND RIDGING GRADUALLY
DEAMPLIFYING. THIS PATTERN PROMOTES PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH HIGHS
NEAR OR BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL STAY RELATIVELY COOL IN THE 30S AND 40S, WITH FROST
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 10-20 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
UP TO 30 MPH, BUT WILL NOT BE AS BLUSTERY AS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
FOR THE PANHANDLES.
HARREL
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
MEDIUM-LONG RANGE MODEL DATA IS CURRENTLY IN RATHER FAIR AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION EARLY NEXT WEEK. ZONAL FLOW WILL
REAMPLIFY INTO SOUTHWEST FLOW AND WEEK RIDGING OVER THE REGION AS A
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WESTERN SEABOARD. IN
GENERAL, NEXT WEEK'S WEATHER ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WILL BE MORE OR
LESS UNEVENTFUL. MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S WILL RECUR
EACH AFTERNOON, WITH WARMEST DAYS EXPECTED WED AND THU. A TIGHTER
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS TYPICALLY BREEZY FOR
PANHANDLE STANDARDS, OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 15-25 MPH GUSTING
AROUND 35 MPH DAILY.
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL PREVIOUSLY CENTERED ON LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY IS TRENDING DOWNWARDS, AS MODELS HAVE COME TO REALIZE THAT
DESPITE IMPROVING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE, UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL BE
MODEST AT BEST. THIS STILL SUPPORTS ABOUT 10-15% CHANCES FOR STRAY
SHOWERS/WEAK STORMS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN IT RAINING IS WANING. LATER
IN THE WEEK TOWARDS THE WEEKEND, GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS FOCUSING ON
THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEPENING LOW TO EVENTUALLY EJECT OVER THE
PLAINS. AMPLE DISAGREEMENT EXISTS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING
OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT EARLY INDICATIONS SUPPORT THE RETURN OF BETTER
MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES TO THE PANHANDLES.
HARREL
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP TO AROUND 15 KTS GUSTING
25-30 KTS AFTER 16Z.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...03
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