091
FXUS64 KAMA 190504
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1204 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
- CAN'T RULE OUT SOME VIRGA SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
- MOSTLY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES POTENTIALLY RETURNING THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SMALL RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A SURFACE TROUGH
TODAY IS EXPECTED TO SEE THE GRADIENT RELAX EVER SO SLIGHTLY
ALLOWING FOR SOME LIGHTER WINDS IN THE NORTHWEST BUT STILL A
SMIDGEN ON THE BREEZY SIDE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
COMBINED PANHANDLES. THIS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
WARM SLIGHTLY INTO THE LOWER 70S, WITH THE CANYON AND RIVER VALLEY
EXPECTED TO BE WARMER IN THE MID 70S. TONIGHT, THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ISOLATED TO MAYBE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
HOWEVER, THE SHORT-WAVE DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO MISS THE
COMBINED PANHANDLES TO THE NORTH ALL TOGETHER, MAKING IT DIFFICULT
TO DETERMINE THE EXACT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. ALSO, THE
SURFACE IS LOOKING TO REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY HINDERING MUCH
MOISTURE FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. DESPITE THE INCREASING
MOISTURE ALOFT IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW, MODELS ARE NOT VERY
CONFIDENT ON SHOWER OR STORM ACTIVITY AND MAY ONLY BE HINTING AT
SOME VIRGA. THE NBM IS ONLY GIVING A LESS THAN 10 POP AT THIS
TIME. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES MAY NEED TO ADD SOME MENTIONABLE 10
TO 15 POPS MAINLY IN THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE COMBINED
PANHANDLES.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN OVER THE PANHANDLES
WED INTO THU RAISING DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE
COMBINED PANHANDLES THU, RAISING SURFACE WINDS A BIT COMPARED TO
THE CALM WINDS EXPECTED WED. THIS SYSTEM MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BRING THE RETURN OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES THU NIGHT FOR THE FAR
WESTERN PANHANDLES. WITH THE REST OF THE PANHANDLES GAINING PRECIP
CHANCES ON FRIDAY. THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING
AND COVERAGE OF POTENTIAL SHOWERS/STORMS AT THIS TIME.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON THE PATH AND TIMING OF THE
BEST PRECIPITATION. LIKELY TO SEE THE RAIN CHANCES TO RETURN,
HOWEVER, THE DETAILS IN AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE ARE NOT GREAT AT THIS
TIME. THE CURRENT SIGNALS INDICATE A SLIGHT COOL DOWN FRIDAY AS
WELL WITH THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE WESTERN PANHANDLES AND MID TO UPPER 70S IN
THE EASTERN PANHANDLES FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GOING INTO THE WEEKEND
THE NBM IS GIVING UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1033 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 12
KTS OR LESS. CURRENTLY SOME GUSTS REACHING 28 KTS HAVE CONTINUED
FOR KAMA BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...03
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page