271
FXUS64 KAMA 192323
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
623 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
- ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT MAY RESULT IN MOSTLY GUSTY WINDS WITH LITTLE
PRECIPITATION TODAY AND TOMORROW. WILL NOT RULE OUT SOME POCKETS OF
THUNDER EMBEDDED IN THESE SHOWERS.
- MOSTLY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
-THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE NEXT RETURN OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS, AND RAINFALL MAY BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SOME
FLOODING CONCERNS STARTING FRIDAY EVENING AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOWS A MILD PLUME OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NM AND INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. EXPECT THAT WHAT WE'LL GET OUT OF THIS IS MOSTLY VIRGA, AS
AIR AT THE SURFACE IS STILL ON THE DRIER SIDE. BUT WILL NOT RULE
OUT SOME SHOWERS REACHING THE GROUND, SO HAVE GONE WITH A 10 POP
FOR THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. NOW MOST OF THE
VIRGA SHOWERS SHOULD BE THROUGH BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, BUT THERE
IS STILL SOME LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES
THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS OVER THE NEXT
24-48 HOURS, WE DO SEE THAT WE HAVE A LITTLE BIT OF CAPE 100-300
J/KG AND THAT SOME OF IT GETS ABOVE THAT -20C RANGE, AND WE HAVE
AMPLE LIFT WITH THE SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN NV TRACKING NORTHEAST
OVER OUR AREA, SO THIS ADDS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDER INTO THE
MIX. MOSTLY SHOWERS ARE IN THE FORECAST, BUT WILL NOTE ISO THUNDER
FROM TIME TO TIME, TO ADDRESS THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND
PROBABILITIES OF SQUEEZING OUT SOME LIGHTNING. AT THE SURFACE
WE'LL CONTINUE TO HAVE A LEE SURFACE LOW WITH SEMI TIGHT SURFACE
GRADIENTS TODAY AND TOMORROW, KEEPING THOSE SURFACE WINDS IN THE
10-20 MPH RANGE AND WE MAY GUST 20-30 MPH AT TIMES. TOMORROW LOOKS
LIKE WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN TODAY, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE IN THE 70S TODAY AND
TOMORROW.
WEBER
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY, BUT THURSDAY WILL BE CLOSE BEHIND
BEFORE WE MOVE INTO AN ACTIVE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL AMPLIFY
OVER THE PANHANDLES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LEADING TO HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN CHANCES. AS WE
APPROACH THURSDAY EVENING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING IN OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN NV AND BRING
ANOTHER SWATH OF MOISTURE THAT'S PROJECTED TO START MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST PANHANDLES AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT THE MORE LIKELY
TIME OF ARRIVAL WILL BE FRIDAY. GIVEN THE STRONG SOUTH SOUTHWEST
FLOW WITH THIS, IT WILL HAVE A VERY GRADUAL EXPANSION WESTWARD, SO
MUCH THAT THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH PRECIPITATION ALONG AND EAST OF A
GUYMON TO AMARILLO LINE, WHERE FURTHER WEST WE COULD SEE CONTINUOUS
RAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THINGS GET A LITTLE DICEY
AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, BUT THESE ARE THE BETTER
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE PANHANDLES, AND THERE
COULD BE EXCESSIVE RAIN INVOLVED, SO LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS ARE
SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND. BUT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME OR ALL OF
THE PANHANDLE TO GET A DRY SLOT AND MISS OUT ALL TOGETHER. BASED ON
THE PATTERN HISTORY WE'VE BEEN THROUGH, THE DRY SLOT SCENARIO IS
CURRENTLY LESS FAVORED, BUT WILL NOT EVER RULE THAT OUT. RIGHT NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE A 70/30 SPLIT LEANING TOWARDS A BETTER CHANCE OF
GETTING RAIN THIS WEEKEND.
WEBER
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH HIGH CLOUDS. SOME
VIRGA SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT ACROSS THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES, WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER WIND GUSTS
THAN WHAT IS LISTED IN THE TAFS. OTHERWISE EXPECT WINDS WITH A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS WITH PERIODS OF GUSTS UP
TO 25 KTS.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...03
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