354
FXUS64 KAMA 200513
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1213 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
- ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT MAY RESULT IN MOSTLY GUSTY WINDS WITH
LITTLE PRECIPITATION TODAY AND TONIGHT. WILL NOT RULE OUT SOME
POCKETS OF THUNDER EMBEDDED IN THESE SHOWERS.
- MOSTLY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
- THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE NEXT RETURN OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS, AND RAINFALL MAY BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SOME
FLOODING CONCERNS STARTING FRIDAY EVENING AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO KEEP HIGH CLOUDS AROUND FOR
TODAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ALONG WITH KEEPING A VERY SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS, MAYBE EVEN ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH TODAY. ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MAINLY EXPECTED TO KEEP TO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES. A SHORT-WAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THE
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH SUPPORT TO BRING THE SLIGHT CHANCES
(10-20 POP). ONCE THE MAIN SHORT-WAVE MOVES OUT, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
IS PROGGED TO BUILD IN TOMORROW. THIS WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES BACK
ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING FOR THE LOWER 80S. THE TYPICAL WARM
SPOTS OFF THE CAPROCK SHOULD NOT HAVE PROBLEM WITH ACHIEVING THE
LOWER 80S, WHILE ON THE CAPROCK TEMPERATURES MAY HOLD SHORT AT 79.
SURFACE WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DROP OFF FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
TO THE 5-12 MPH RANGE. UNTIL THEN EXPECT 15-20 MPH WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTH ONCE AGAIN TODAY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
THURSDAY, THE NEXT BIG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO DIG DOWN THE WEST COAST. WHILE STAYING UNDER THE RIDGE FOR THE
MEAN TIME, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE AGAIN
JUST LIKE WED. HOWEVER, THE APPROACHING SYSTEM SHOULD BRING BACK A
TIGHTER SURFACE GRADIENT AND INCREASE SURFACE WINDS BACK TO THE 15-
20 MPH RANGE. THIS NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES BACK STARTING FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS PROGGED TO BE
A FEW DEGREES COOLER. THE CURRENT SIGNAL IS THAT POPS WILL BE
RETURNING TO THE PANHANDLES ONCE AGAIN THU NIGHT. HOWEVER, THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE POTENTIAL RAIN AMOUNTS AND BEST TIMING
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH 30 TO 60 POPS
PROGGED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND, INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL
POTENTIALLY HOLD AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK IN THE 60S. POPS ARE TAPERING
OFF LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BUT SOME 20-30 POPS ARE HOLDING ON FOR
NOW, UNTIL THE SYSTEM SPEED IS FULLY KNOWN.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS UP TO 15 KTS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME HIGH BASED
LIGHT SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN THUNDER. THE PROBABILITY FOR THUNDER
AND RAIN AT ANY ONE TERMINAL IS VERY LOW AND SHOULD NOT SEE ANY
IMPACTS OUTSIDE OF SOME POTENTIAL ERRATIC WIND GUSTS FROM THESE
SHOWERS IF THEY FORM CLOSE ENOUGH.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...03
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