901
FXUS64 KAMA 202330
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
630 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
- ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT MAY RESULT IN MOSTLY GUSTY WINDS WITH
LITTLE PRECIPITATION TODAY AND TONIGHT. WILL NOT RULE OUT SOME
POCKETS OF THUNDER EMBEDDED IN THESE SHOWERS.
- MOSTLY DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY.
- THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE NEXT RETURN OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS, AND RAINFALL MAY BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SOME
FLOODING CONCERNS STARTING FRIDAY EVENING AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS MOVED THROUGH LAST NIGHT AND AGAIN THIS
MORNING AND THERE HAS BEEN JUST ENOUGH MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND
LIFT WITH THIS WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO GET A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HERE AND THERE. WE HAVE ANOTHER BATCH OF
ELEVATED SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM NM AND THERE COULD BE SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDER WITH THEM AS WELL. TODAY'S HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE AREAS, BUT STILL MIGHT HAVE THAT COOLER
FEEL AS WE STILL HAVE A BIT OF A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT PUSHING
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THAT WILL RELAX TOMORROW
AS WE MOVE UNDER THE MAIN LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AND CROSS BARRIER
FLOW BRIEFLY WEAKENS OVER THE ROCKIES. THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CO/KS AND MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW STORMS
OVERNIGHT IN THE OK PANHANDLE IN IT'S WAKE.
WEBER
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
ANOTHER WARM DAY ON THURSDAY, BUT IT WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY
INCREASED WINDS DUE TO THE NEXT APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM OFF THE
SOUTHERN CA COAST. CROSS BARRIER FLOW WILL PICK BACK UP AND ANOTHER
LEE SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO SET UP IN SOUTHEAST CO, TIGHTENING UP
SURFACE GRADIENTS SO THAT SOUTH WINDS WILL BE BACK IN THAT 10-15 MPH
RANGE BUT COULD BE GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH. STILL WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
IN PLACE SO HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. AND GIVEN
THAT THE POCKET OF WARMER AIR WILL NOW BE MORE PLACED IN SOUTHERN
CO/KS, WOULD EXPECT A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY ON THURSDAY FOR THE OK
PANHANDLE,WHILE OTHER AREAS WILL BE SIMILAR TO MAYBE A DEGREE COOLER
THAN WEDNESDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK THE LARGE CLOSED LOW OFF SOUTHERN CA TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NV BY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO DRAW UP THAT WARMER AIR WE ARE FORECASTING FOR THE PANHANDLES ON
THURSDAY, BUT IT ALSO IS A MORE DRIER TRACK, WITH MOST OF THE
MOISTURE BEING PULLED INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. AS WE HEAD INTO
FRIDAY THAT LOW THAT EJECTED TO THE NORTHEAST, MAY LEAVE A WEAK
CUTOFF LOW TO TRACK OVER SOUTHERN CA IN IT'S WAKE. HOWEVER THE HIGH
MAY TAKE A MORE POSITIVE TILT, BUT WILL STRUGGLE TO BUDGE FROM A
EASTERLY TRACK. THIS WILL PUT THE PANHANDLES IN A MORE QUESTIONABLE
POSITION AS FAR AS THE WEEKEND MOISTURE AND JUST HOW MUCH WE'LL
BENEFIT FROM THAT MOISTURE PLUME, AS IT CONTINUES TO DRIVE MOSTLY
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM. AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WE'LL
BE HIGHLY FOCUSED ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES, MAYBE OVER THE THE AMARILLO TO GUYMON LINE, WITH A SHARP
DROP OFF POTENTIAL TO BE MOSTLY DRY EAST OF THAT LINE. AND RIGHT
ALONG THAT LINE IS STILL HIGHLY IN QUESTION. THAT BEING SAID,
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF TRAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH AMPLE PWAT'S IN
THE 1.00-1.30" RANGE WILL BE ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLES
FOR THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION TO EXPAND EAST AS A PRETTY POTENT UPPER TROUGH DIVES
DOWN OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. IF THE STRONGER COLDER SOLUTION PLAYS
OUT WE COULD BE LOOKING AT OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT DOWN AROUND
FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES, EXCEPT THE SOUTHEAST. BUT A
LOT CAN CHANGE FROM NOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS TO THE STRENGTH AND
AMPLITUDE OF THIS COLD AIRMASS.
WEBER
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 554 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS.
BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST AND
FALL BELOW 10 KTS AFTER 06Z.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...03
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