784
FXUS63 KARX 200907
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
307 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO FAVOR BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FROM TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS INTO THE 20S FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY
AND RANGE FROM THE MID-20S TO LOWER 30S ON SUNDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
FOR TONIGHT, AND RANGE FROM 5 TO 15 ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN ON MONDAY AND THEN CONTINUE
INTO THE BEGINNING OF 2025. FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S AND LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE 20 AND 30S. THERE ARE HIGH PROBABILITIES (80-90
PERCENT) THAT THESE WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE START OF 2025.
- AT THIS TIME, NOT SEEING ANY IMPACTFUL WEATHER IN THE AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST DECEMBER 29.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
TODAY
A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A DUSTING
TO MAYBE A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH BETWEEN NOW AND SUNRISE.
STEEP 925-850 MB LAPSE RATES WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 IN
WESTERN WISCONSIN. THESE WINDS MIGHT CAUSE SOME MINOR DRIFTING
OF SNOW THIS MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
TEENS INTO THE 20S. WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS.
THIS WEEKEND
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO FAVOR BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE TEENS INTO THE 20S ON SATURDAY AND RANGE FROM THE
MID-20S TO LOWER 30S FOR SUNDAY (THIS IS WARMER THAN IT LOOKED A
COUPLE OF DAYS AGO). LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FOR TONIGHT, AND RANGE FROM 5 TO 15 ON
SATURDAY NIGHT.
WHILE MANY OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THEY
ALSO SHOW THAT THE AIR MASS OVER THE REGION WILL BE DRY. AS A
RESULT, CONFIDENCE REMAINS (LESS THAN 15 PERCENT) THAT WE WILL
SEE ANY SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM.
MONDAY
THE MODELS ARE PERSISTENT THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE REGION. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE SATURATION
WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM. MANY MODELS DO NOT PRODUCE
ANY PRECIPITATION UNTIL IT REACHES THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. DUE TO
THIS, THERE WAS A REDUCTION IN THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO
THE 20 AND 30 PERCENT RANGE.
FOR THE REST OF 2024
IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A MARITIME AIR MASS WILL BE FOUND
ACROSS THE UNITED STATES FOR NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT, THERE ARE
HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES (80-90
PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR THE LOCAL AREA). FOR NEXT WEEK, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S AND 40S AND LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE 20 AND 30S. THESE WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE (80-90 PROBABILITY) INTO THE START OF 2025.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
THE FINAL ROUND OF SNOW FOR THIS EVENT HAS ENTERED OUR
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. AS IT PASSED THROUGH MINNESOTA,
OBSERVATIONS INDICATED VISIBILITIES GENERALLY REMAINED 1-3SM
WITH THE SNOW, ALTHOUGH THE 20.00Z HREF DOES SUGGEST A 40-60%
PROBABILITY THAT VISIBILITIES COULD DROP BELOW 1SM IN HEAVIER
SNOW, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS NORTH OF I- 90. WINDS INCREASE AND
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT, GENERALLY 20-25KT, BUT GUSTS UP
TO 30KT ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST IOWA. SNOW EXITS TO THE
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING AROUND 12-13Z WITH THE MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS THAT PERSIST OVERNIGHT BECOMING VFR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 302 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
ON DECEMBER 19, DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS WERE SET AT BOTH
LA CROSSE AND ROCHESTER.
THE OFFICIAL SNOW OBSERVER NEAR LA CROSSE REGIONAL AIRPORT
REPORTED 6.6 INCHES OF SNOW. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 5.4 INCHES
IN 1952. DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS DATE BACK TO NOVEMBER 1, 1896.
THE OFFICIAL SNOW OBSERVER NEAR ROCHESTER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
REPORTED 5.9 INCHES OF SNOW. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 5.4 INCHES
IN 2008. DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS DATE BACK TO JANUARY 1, 1893.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BOYNE
AVIATION...FALKINHAM
CLIMATE...BOYNE
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