349
FXUS63 KARX 210502
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1102 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
- NEXT CHANCE (20-40%) OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION COMES MONDAY, BUT
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL EXTEND AND WHAT
TYPE(S) IT WILL BE.
- MILD AND GENERALLY QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER AROUND CHRISTMAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 102 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
COLD RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT:
A QUIETER BUT COLDER WEATHER PATTERN TAKES HOLD HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION. SOME
AREAS HAVE MANAGED TO CLEAR TODAY, BUT A SMALL PESKY STRATOCUMULUS
DECK HAS BEEN TRYING TO SLOWLY ERODE THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE
CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE SPILLING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTING OVERHEAD TONIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO BRIEF CLEARING FOR
MOST OF THE AREA, WITH LIGHT WINDS BECOMING CALM. COMBINED WITH
FRESH SNOW COVER, IT WILL BE A VERY EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING SETUP AND WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF THE COLDER BOG AREAS
DIP A BIT BELOW ZERO. ON SATURDAY, WINDS TURN SOUTHEAST BEHIND
THE DEPARTING HIGH, BEGINNING A GRADUAL WARMUP INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
NEXT CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION FOR SOME ON MONDAY:
TURNING ATTENTION TO THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION, MONDAY'S
SYSTEM STILL HAS UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR SOUTH PRECIPITATION MAY
EXTEND. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING
SOMEWHERE THROUGH THE REGION, BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR
NORTH OR SOUTH IT WILL PASS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW SOME
CHALLENGES WITH THE DEPTH OF SATURATION, WITH THE COLUMN QUICKLY
DRYING OUT ABOVE 850MB BY MIDDAY. GIVEN THE LINGERING UNCERTAINTIES,
WILL CONTINUE TO JUST LET THE NBM HANDLE THE DETAILS FOR NOW. WHILE
THE HIGHEST CHANCES (80-90%) FOR ANY PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM STILL
RESIDE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN, THIS FORECAST UPDATE BRINGS 30-40%
CHANCES A LITTLE DEEPER INTO THE FORECAST AREA, EXTENDING THROUGH
ALL OF WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. GIVEN THE SATURATION DEPTH ISSUES,
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM'S POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION TYPES AS
WE GET CLOSER IN TIME, AS RIGHT NOW FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD
INDICATE LIGHT SNOW, RAIN, AND FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE ALL
POSSIBILITIES.
MILD AND MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER AROUND CHRISTMASTIME:
OTHERWISE A RATHER MILD AND BENIGN HOLIDAY WEEK IN STORE WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 30S EACH DAY, POSSIBLY FLIRTING WITH
40 IN SOME AREAS BY FRIDAY. CHRISTMAS EVE AND DAY BOTH LOOK DRY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. NOT REALLY ANY ORGANIZED SYSTEMS ON THE
HORIZON BEYOND THEN, BUT THERE WILL BE SOME SMALL PRECIP CHANCES
(20%) HEADING INTO THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GIVEN THE MILD AIRMASS,
THIS IS LOOKING TO LIKELY BE MORE IN THE FORM OF RAIN BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWARD TONIGHT, ALLOWING FOR
CLEAR TO SCATTERED SKIES ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS STREAM BACK INTO THE REGION
BEGINNING SATURDAY MORNING, BECOMING A CEILING AGAIN BY THE
AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10KFT OR
ABOVE, FALLING BELOW 10KFT SATURDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE, VARIABLE
WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY SATURDAY.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KURZ
AVIATION...FALKINHAM
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