915
FXUS63 KARX 250913
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
313 AM CST WED DEC 25 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PERSIST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHS FRIDAY TO SUNDAY RUNNING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
IN THE LOW TO EVEN MID 40S.
- INCREASING SIGNAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPING TONIGHT,
TRANSITIONING TO DRIZZLE AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING
THROUGH THE MORNING ON THURSDAY. UNTREATED ROADWAYS MAY BECOME
SLICK FOR THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
- WET WEATHER FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL COMING ON FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST WED DEC 25 2024
'TWAS THE NIGHT BEFORE CHRISTMAS AND AT THE WEATHER BUREAU,
SKY GRIDS FOR TODAY WERE BEING ASSIGNED 1 0 0.
FOR HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IS KEEPING FLOW WEAK
AND THE CHANCES FOR SUN ARE LOOKING QUITE BLEAK.
THOUGH OVER CENTRAL WI AN AREA OF TRANSIENT CLEARING,
HAS EARLY THIS MORNING LED TO FOG AND LOW TEMPERATURES VEERING.
BUT THE NEWS FOR TODAY ISN'T ALL BAD,
FOR MILD TEMPERATURES SHOULD MAKE SOME FOLKS QUITE GLAD.
MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH TONIGHT, THIS MUCH IS CERTAIN.
BUT THE DRIZZLE POTENTIAL HIDES BEHIND A THIN CURTAIN.
NEARLY 1-KM IN DEPTH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE,
ROUGHLY THE THRESHOLD FOR DRIZZLE WE NEED.
WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT AT 280K SHOULD EXIST,
SO COLLISION COALESCENCE CANNOT BE DISMISSED.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO WET BULBS FLIRTING WITH FREEZING,
SOMETHING EVERY FORECASTER WILL FIND VERY DISPLEASING.
A DEGREE OR TWO DIFFERENCE CAN CHANGE THINGS QUITE QUICK,
FROM SIMPLE LIGHT DRIZZLE TO MAKING ROADS SLICK.
NO THIS INDEED IS NOT VERY NICE,
THE HREF HAS A 30-50 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR A GLAZE OF ICE.
THE GOOD NEWS IS WARMER AIR IS ON THE WAY,
AND BY THURSDAY MIDDAY THIS THREAT MELTS AWAY.
THE LATE WEEK PATTERN FEATURES MANY AN AMPLIFIED WAVE,
THE NEXT OF WHICH EJECTS NORTHWARD AND ARRIVES EARLY FRIDAY.
THIS WILL BRING OUR BEST SHOT OF ACCUMULATING RAIN,
WHICH MAKES OUR SNOWPACK TOUGH TO MAINTAIN.
NEARLY 1/2 AN INCH OF RAIN WE MAY RECEIVE,
WHICH 10-20% OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE UP THEIR SLEEVE.
ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK DEWPOINTS WILL RISE,
INCREASING THE RISK OF DENSE FOG IN THE SKIES.
CLIMBING INTO THE MID-40S HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL WARM,
A SOLID 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORM.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS WARM SPELL IS QUITE ALRIGHT,
WITH THE NBM TEMPERATURES CLUSTERED VERY TIGHT.
LOOKING TO NEXT WEEK TEMPERATURES START TO COOL DOWN,
BUT NO MAJOR COLD SNAPS WILL BE LURKING AROUND.
CONSENSUS IN THE PATTERN NEXT WEEK BEGINS TO DEGRADE,
BUT THERE DOESN'T SEEM TO BE ANYTHING OF WHICH TO BE AFRAID.
FROM WFO LA CROSSE WHERE THE LIGHTS ALWAYS BURN BRIGHT,
MERRY CHRISTMAS TO ALL, AND TO ALL A GOOD NIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1052 PM CST TUE DEC 24 2024
LOW CIGS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY CAUSING
MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES. THESE CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
MOSTLY FROM AROUND 500FT TO 2000FT. THERE REMAINS A MEDIUM
CHANCE (30 TO 60%) OF PATCHY FOG, 3SM OR LESS, DEVELOPING OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA, NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN, AND
NORTHEASTERN IOWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT. ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM
WILL DISSIPATE BY MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SKOW
AVIATION...CECAVA
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