951
FXUS63 KARX 312029
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
229 PM CST FRI JAN 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 FROM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD RESULT IN SNOW
TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 (HIGHEST TOTALS
IN EASTERN TAYLOR COUNTY) AND LITTLE ACCUMULATIONS ELSEWHERE.
- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
- SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST FRI JAN 31 2025
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. LIKE THE PAST COUPLE DAYS, THE BEST FORCING AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE LOCATED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94. THE
ENSEMBLES ARE PRETTY CLOSE THAT THE QPF WILL RANGE FROM A TRACE
TO A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94 AND
RANGE 0.05 TO AROUND 0.15 OF AN INCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. SOUNDINGS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES WOULD SUGGEST SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS AROUND 10-15 TO 1. THIS WOULD RESULT IN 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOW NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94. HIGHEST TOTALS WILL BE IN EASTERN
TAYLOR COUNTY. THIS WOULD FIT IN WELL WITH THE SNOWFALLS IN THE
GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES.
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST, THE NAM WOULD SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. MEANWHILE, THE
GFS IS MUCH DRIER IN ITS BOUNDARY LAYER, SO IT IS NOT SHOWING
ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE GRAND ENSEMBLE SHOWS LESS THAN A 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE.
SUNDAY
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DRY ON SUNDAY
MORNING. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CAUSE 925 MB TEMPERATURES TO
WARM INTO THE 1 TO 3C NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 AND 3 TO 6C
ELSEWHERE. THIS WOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-
AND UPPER 40S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 AND FROM AROUND 50 TO THE
MID-50S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. IF WE HAPPEN TO MIX UP
TO 875 MB, TEMPERATURES WOULD WARM ANOTHER 2 TO 3F. THIS COULD
RESULT IN SOME HIGH TEMPERATURES BEING TIED OR BROKEN.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
THE ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN LINGER ACROSS THE AREA
INTO MONDAY. SOME WEAK 925 AND 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT,
RESULTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LIGHT SNOW. THIS SIGNAL WANES AS
THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS WEST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.
AT THIS TIME, MODEL ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A DUSTING TO A HALF INCH
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 AND AND FROM A HALF TO 1 INCH ALONG AND
NORTH OF THIS INTERSTATE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL IN THE 20S
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 AND RANGE FROM AROUND 30 TO THE MID-30S
ELSEWHERE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
SOME OF THE MODELS ARE PHASING THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAMS. THESE SOLUTIONS DEVELOP A STRONGER SURFACE LOW TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST. IN ADDITION, THE TRACK OF THEIR LOW IS FURTHER
WEST. MEANWHILE, OTHER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE LITTLE PHASING
BETWEEN THESE STREAMS. THIS RESULTS IN A WEAKER SURFACE LOW AND
A TRACK FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. DUE TO THESE UNCERTAINTIES,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND AMOUNTS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST FRI JAN 31 2025
WITH DRY AIR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT,
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTION IS
TOWARDS NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE IFR CEILINGS CURRENTLY
STREAM SOUTH FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. THINKING THAT THESE SHOULD LIFT
TO AT LEAST MVFR, IF NOT VFR, AS THEY MOVE FURTHER SOUTH AND INTERACT
WITH THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE AS THE NBM SUGGESTS ONLY 20-40%
PROBABILITIES OF MVFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE WINDS
WILL BE SOMEWHAT VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, SHIFTING FROM A CURRENTLY
NORTHERLY DIRECTION TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY
SATURDAY. GUSTS OF 15-20KT ARE EXPECTED TODAY. CLOUDS INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
AREA WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION INCREASING TOWARDS THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST FRI JAN 31 2025
ON SUNDAY, 925 MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 1 TO 3C RANGE
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 AND FROM 3 TO 6C RANGE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA. MIX DOWN WOULD HAVE SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID- AND UPPER 40S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 AND FROM AROUND 50 TO
THE MID-50S ELSEWHERE. IF WE HAPPEN TO MIX UP 875 MB, THESE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WOULD BE ANOTHER 2 TO 3F WARMER. THIS COULD
RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME RECORDS HIGHS BEING TIED OR
BROKEN. THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR LA CROSSE IS 51F IN 2006
AND FOR ROCHESTER IS 48F IN 2012.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BOYNE
AVIATION...FALKINHAM
CLIMATE...BOYNE
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