548
FXUS63 KARX 072231
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
430 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOMALOUS WARMTH THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS; DAYTIME HIGHS
FROM THE 50S TO 60S.
- SPORADIC, LIMITED IMPACT, AND LOW CONFIDENCE FOR PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
- CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A STRONG STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT
THE CENTRAL CONUS LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 133 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2025
MAIN FORECAST FACET OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE ANOMALOUS
WARMTH. THE RESPONSIBLE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CAN BE SEEN OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON UPPER LEVEL GOES WATER VAPOR. A PLUME OF
MEAGER LOW LEVEL WARMER AIR ON POES IS OVERSHADOWED BY 90TH
PERCENTILE 500MB TEMPERATURES IN THIS MORNING'S RAOBS (SPC
CLIMATOLOGY). NOT THE MOST APPLICABLE INDICE BUT WITH /WEAKER/
LOW LEVEL WAA, WILL ACT TO STRENGTHEN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AS IT ADVECTS EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. INDIVIDUAL HREF
MEMBERS CALL FOR 90TH PERCENTILE MID LEVEL HEIGHTS THROUGH
SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK:
THE WARMEST LOW LEVEL AIR PLUME WILL ADVECT EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH 75TH-90TH PERCENTILE 700MB TEMPERATURES
NEAR 0C. COMPARED TO MODEL CLIMATOLOGY, LOCAL LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
WILL BE ~2 STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
(NAEFS/ENS). ACCOMPANYING ECMWF EXTREME FORECAST INDEX OF 0.8 SHOWS
THE MOST ANOMALOUS WARMTH AFFECT DAYTIME HIGHS FOR
MONDAY/TUESDAY. FORECASTED HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO RECORD WARMTH FALLING MORE THAN 10 DEGREES BELOW AT
BOTH ROCHESTER,MN AND LA CROSSE, WI.
HAVE ONLY VARIED AWAY FROM NATIONAL BLEND TEMPERATURE FORECAST
ALONG OUR WESTERN PERIPHERAL COUNTIES FROM SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
THROUGH WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE A COLD BIAS IS EVIDENT IN
LONGER TERM ENSEMBLE MODELS DUE TO HOLDING ONTO A SNOWPACK.
THEREFORE, HAVE BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED LONG TERM MODELS TO
BUMP UP TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES.
LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MIDWEEK:
A COUPLE OF MEAGER, LOW IMPACT PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. INITIAL PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES GRAZE OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED
SYNOPTIC FORCING PROGRESSES SOUTHEAST ALONG A LIFTING OPEN WAVE.
HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCES IN SPOTS CONCURRENT WITH LIMITED
SATURATION IN HIGH RESOLUTION SOUNDINGS. DIMINISHING FORCING AND
FLEETING SATURATION LIMIT OVERALL CONFIDENCE AND EXTENT.
A FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AGAIN FLIRTS
POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION BUT BEST FORCING REMAINS TO THE NORTH.
GIVEN 0% LONG TERM ENSEMBLE CONFIDENCE FOR 0.01"+, HAVEN'T ADDED
ANY PRECIPITATION MENTION AT THE CURRENT FORECAST HOUR.
SIMILAR CAN BE SEEN ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK OPEN WAVE PASSES
WELL TO THE NORTH IN SOUTHERN CANADA. ALTHOUGH, NATIONAL BLEND
DOES INCLUDE SLIGHT MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FOR THIS WEAK WAVE.
REGARDLESS, VERY MINIMAL IMPACT AND AMOUNTS.
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEKEND:
FINALLY, IMPACTFUL PRECIPITATION AND STORMS NEXT WEEKEND (DAY
8) ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY. THE EPS & GEFS HAVE 100% CONFIDENCE
FOR AN AREA OF LOWER MID LEVEL HEIGHTS LIFTING THROUGH THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY, TAKING AIM AT THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WHILE THERE IS A WIDE
SPATIAL GRADIENT IN PROBABILITIES, THERE HAS BEEN AGREEMENT
BETWEEN RUNS AND MODELS IN 100% PROBABILITIES. AS FOR ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOWS, THE GEFS & EPS HAVE BOTH INCREASED CONFIDENCE FOR
A STRONGER LOW SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE THE
GEPS HAS LOST MEMBERSHIP IN THE SPAGHETTI PLOTS.
MASSIVE SPREAD REGARDING INSTABILITY AXIS AND AMOUNTS BOTH WITHIN
AND BETWEEN LONG TERM ENSEMBLES. REGARDLESS, MACHINE LEARNING
ENSEMBLES SHOW 5-15% PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER COVERING THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON DAY 8. HIGHEST VALUES UP
TO 30% CENTERED OVER DVN'S FORECAST AREA. WILL BE A VERY
IMPORTANT FORECAST DETAIL TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 430 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2025
CIGS: INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT, SCATTERING OUT SAT
AFTERNOON. VFR.
WX/VSBY: NO IMPACTS ANTICIPATED.
WINDS: LIGHT NORTHWEST SWINGING LIGHT SOUTH OVERNIGHT. WINDS ON THE
INCREASE - AND SHIFTING WESTERLY - BY 12 TO 15Z AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE BRINGS TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. MIXING KICKS IN
FAIRLY EARLY IN THE DAY WITH GUSTS ALREADY BY 15Z, UPPING A FEW
TICKS INTO THE MID 20 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD DIE OFF FAIRLY
QUICKLY MOVING INTO LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SAT.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JAR
AVIATION.....RIECK
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