979
FXUS63 KARX 081123
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
523 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MAINLY DRY AND BREEZY TODAY.
- TEMPERATURES WARMING FROM TODAY INTO MONDAY.
- BRIEF COOL DOWN FOR TUESDAY.
- IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A STRONG LOW PRESSURES SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2025
TODAY
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN AND
EASTERN WISCONSIN AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY. SOME
MID-CLOUDS, ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM, WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. WHILE THE RADAR
IS SHOWING SOME DECENT RETURNS ALONG THE COLD FRONT, THE SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS ARE NOT SHOWING THIS PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
GROUND. LOOKING AT THE FORECAST SOUNDING OVER OUR AREA, THEY
SHOW QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR BELOW 750 MB. DUE TO THIS, THE CAMS
HAVE MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION EAST OF OUR AREA FOR LATE THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST WAS TRENDED TOWARD A
DRIER SOLUTION WITH ONLY UP TO 20% CHANCE OF SNOW IN FAR EASTERN
TAYLOR COUNTY IN NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT, THE WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH AND WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. ON SUNDAY, 925 MB TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE 6 TO 9C RANGE. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S. EVEN WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION ON MONDAY WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 10 TO
14C. CURRENTLY HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S
TO MID-60S, BUT CONCERNED THAT THESE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE
WARM ENOUGH, BECAUSE THESE TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW THE NBM 50TH
PERCENTILE. THERE IS A POTENTIAL THAT WE COULD CLIMB TO THE NBM
75TH PERCENTILE WHICH HAS HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. COLD
AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT WILL COOL 925 MB TO
AROUND 0C BY NOON AND THEN TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 0 TO 5C IN
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S
TO LOWER 50S.
LATE NEXT WEEK
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE
MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY NIGHT. LIKE THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE
TRACK OF THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA. 76% OF THE GRAND ENSEMBLE HAVE
THE 850 MB LOW TRACKING TO OUR WEST AND NORTH AND THE REMAINING
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE IT TRACKING RIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
AS A RESULT, IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE WE WILL REMAIN ON THE
WARM SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM, THUS, ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE
MAINLY RAIN. IF WE CAN GET ENOUGH INSTABILITY INTO THE REGION,
WE COULD EVEN SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THE 07.00Z AI NCAR PANGU
MODEL EVEN HAS A 5-15% FOR A CONVECTIVE HAZARD FROM A 12Z FRIDAY
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, THE 07.00Z AI NCAR FENGWU KEEPS
ITS GREATER CONVECTIVE HAZARD RISK TO OUR SOUTHEAST DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 523 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH FEW TO SCT
HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE AT BOTH TAF SITES. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20-30 KTS. AS
DIURNAL MIXING WANES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH TO 10 KTS OR LESS WITH NO GUSTS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BOYNE
AVIATION...NAYLOR
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