034   
FXUS63 KARX 081735  
AFDARX  
  
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI  
1135 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
  
- MAINLY DRY AND BREEZY TODAY.  
  
- TEMPERATURES WARMING FROM TODAY INTO MONDAY.  
  
- BRIEF COOL DOWN FOR TUESDAY.  
  
- IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A STRONG LOW PRESSURES SYSTEM WILL  
  IMPACT THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE NEXT WEEK.  
  
  
   
DISCUSSION  
  
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2025  
  
TODAY  
  
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN AND  
EASTERN WISCONSIN AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY. SOME   
MID-CLOUDS, ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS   
SYSTEM, WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. WHILE THE RADAR  
IS SHOWING SOME DECENT RETURNS ALONG THE COLD FRONT, THE SURFACE  
OBSERVATIONS ARE NOT SHOWING THIS PRECIPITATION REACHING THE  
GROUND. LOOKING AT THE FORECAST SOUNDING OVER OUR AREA, THEY  
SHOW QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR BELOW 750 MB. DUE TO THIS, THE CAMS  
HAVE MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION EAST OF OUR AREA FOR LATE THIS  
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST WAS TRENDED TOWARD A  
DRIER SOLUTION WITH ONLY UP TO 20% CHANCE OF SNOW IN FAR EASTERN  
TAYLOR COUNTY IN NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.  
  
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT, THE WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY WITH  
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH AND WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH.  
  
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY  
  
SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL  
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. ON SUNDAY, 925 MB TEMPERATURES WILL  
WARM INTO THE 6 TO 9C RANGE. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH  
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S. EVEN WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE  
REGION ON MONDAY WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 10 TO  
14C. CURRENTLY HAVE HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S  
TO MID-60S, BUT CONCERNED THAT THESE TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE  
WARM ENOUGH, BECAUSE THESE TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW THE NBM 50TH  
PERCENTILE. THERE IS A POTENTIAL THAT WE COULD CLIMB TO THE NBM  
75TH PERCENTILE WHICH HAS HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE   
LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  
  
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT  
  
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. COLD  
AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT WILL COOL 925 MB TO  
AROUND 0C BY NOON AND THEN TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 0 TO 5C IN  
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S  
TO LOWER 50S.  
  
LATE NEXT WEEK  
  
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE  
MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH  
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY NIGHT. LIKE THE  
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE  
TRACK OF THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA. 76% OF THE GRAND ENSEMBLE HAVE  
THE 850 MB LOW TRACKING TO OUR WEST AND NORTH AND THE REMAINING  
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE IT TRACKING RIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  
AS A RESULT, IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE WE WILL REMAIN ON THE  
WARM SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM, THUS, ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE  
MAINLY RAIN. IF WE CAN GET ENOUGH INSTABILITY INTO THE REGION,  
WE COULD EVEN SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THE 07.00Z AI NCAR PANGU   
MODEL EVEN HAS A 5-15% FOR A CONVECTIVE HAZARD FROM A 12Z FRIDAY  
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, THE 07.00Z AI NCAR FENGWU KEEPS  
ITS GREATER CONVECTIVE HAZARD RISK TO OUR SOUTHEAST DURING THIS  
TIME PERIOD.  
  
  
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/  
  
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2025  
  
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON   
WITH GUSTS 20-30KT, DECREASING THIS EVENING TO BELOW 10KT FOR   
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AREAS OF MID CLOUD AT 5-10KFT CURRENTLY   
OVER AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90 CONTINUE EASTWARD   
THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.   
OVERALL, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.   
  
  
   
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
  
WI...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
IA...NONE.  
  
  
  
  
  
DISCUSSION...BOYNE  
AVIATION...FALKINHAM  
 
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