228
FXUS63 KARX 082034
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
234 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER CONTINUES
- WARMING TREND THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH A BRIEF COOL DOWN
TUESDAY
- STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2025
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES
WITH THE PASSING OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THIS MORNING, DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY WITH THE
CURRENT BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING INTO THE EVENING.
ANOTHER BRIEF SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS SUCH THAT BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURN.
GIVEN AMPLE DRY AIR IN PLACE, NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING IN THE WAY
OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH SUNDAY'S WAVE.
WARMING TREND THROUGH NEXT WEEK
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS USHER WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. 925HPA TEMPS CLIMB TO
~9-12C ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND ~12-14C ON MONDAY, RESULTING
IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 60-65F AND 65-70F, RESPECTIVELY. THE
AREA OF BIGGEST SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES FROM AN ENSEMBLE
PERSPECTIVE IS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA, WHERE SNOWPACK FROM LAST
WEEK'S STORM REMAINS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SNOW ON TEMPERATURES WELL, SPECIFICALLY HOW
LONG THE SNOW STICKS AROUND, AND AS SUCH IS LEADING TO A NEARLY
15F SPREAD IN THE INTERQUARTILE RANGE OF THE 08.13Z NBM ACROSS
OUR WEST. THINKING THAT THE SNOWPACK WILL BE ABLE TO MELT FASTER
THAN MODELS CURRENTLY SUGGEST AS SATELLITE TRENDS TODAY SHOW A
DETERIORATING SNOWPACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. GIVEN THE
MELTING SNOWPACK, CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, AND DOWNSLOPING
WINDS IN VALLEY LOCATIONS, HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES TOWARDS
THE 75TH PERCENTILE OF MODEL GUIDANCE, MOST NOTABLY IN AREAS OF
CURRENT SNOWPACK AND VALLEYS. ELSEWHERE, THE 25TH-75TH SPREAD IS
LOW SO HAVE OPTED TO NOT MAKE ADJUSTMENTS.
A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT SURFACE
LOW MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE UNITED STATES/CANADA BORDER. DRY
AIR REMAINS IN PLACE, SO NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE, BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
USHERED INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BE A BRIEF COOL DOWN AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION PICK UP AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT A STRONG TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS LATE
NEXT WEEK, BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AND MOVING TOWARDS THE
MIDWEST WITH TIME. 08.00Z WPC 500HPA CLUSTER ANALYSIS APPEARS TO
BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM AS 66% OF THE MEMBERS SUGGEST THE 500HPA TROUGH SOMEWHERE
OVER IOWA BY SATURDAY. THERE ARE SOME MINOR VARIATIONS IN DEPTH
AND SPEED, BUT WITH NEARLY ALL THE MEMBERS DEPICTING A STOUT
RIDGE OVER THE EAST COAST, THE DEEPER AND SLOWER SOLUTION IS
CURRENTLY FAVORED. LOOKING AT INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLES, THE 08.00Z
GEFS IS THE DEEPEST SOLUTION, INDICATIVE OF A STRONGER SYSTEM,
ALTHOUGH IS ALSO THE FASTEST WHEREAS THE 08.00Z EPS IS A BIT
SLOWER AND SHALLOWER. WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EXACT
DETAILS THIS FAR OUT, OUR AREA APPEARS TO REMAIN IN THE WARM
SECTOR SUCH THAT PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR AREA WILL FALL AS RAIN
WITH POTENTIAL REMAINING FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE HAZARDS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2025
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS 20-30KT, DECREASING THIS EVENING TO BELOW 10KT FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AREAS OF MID CLOUD AT 5-10KFT CURRENTLY
OVER AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90 CONTINUE EASTWARD
THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
OVERALL, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FALKINHAM
AVIATION...FALKINHAM
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