916
FXUS63 KARX 091750
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1250 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND TODAY INTO MONDAY. 60S WITHIN REACH
FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH SOME RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLY
IN JEOPARDY.
- BRIEFLY COOLER FOR TUESDAY, THEN ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WARMUP
INTO FRIDAY WHEN SOME LOCATIONS COULD FLIRT WITH LOW 70S.
- DRY WEATHER CONTINUES UNTIL AN INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY. INCREASING POSSIBILITY IT WILL
BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) OF THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER.
MOSTLY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE AS
IT EXITS NEXT SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2025
PRONOUNCED WARMING INTO MONDAY:
A FLATTENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION THROUGH MONDAY, WITH ZONAL FLOW RETURNING BY TUESDAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED WARMING TREND INTO THE START OF
THE WORK WEEK. COMPARED TO SATURDAY'S WESTERLY WINDS, SURFACE
WINDS TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWESTERLY, AND THEN SOLIDLY
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. AFTERNOON GUSTS BOTH TODAY AND
MONDAY OF 20-30 MPH WILL LEAD TO STRENGTHENING WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND THUS RISING HIGH TEMPERATURES, AS WILL MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES BOTH DAYS. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE SOME THIN MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND BOTH DAYS.
NEVERTHELESS, THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND MONDAY IS
A LITTLE TRICKY AS TEMPERATURES OVERACHIEVED A BIT ON SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. IN ADDITION, THE
DECREASING SNOWPACK THAT BRUSHES OUR FAR WESTERN AND NORTHERN
COUNTIES IS STILL INTRODUCING A COLD BIAS INTO SEVERAL
MODELS/ENSEMBLES. WITHIN THAT SWATH OF SNOWPACK, AREA OBSERVERS
REPORTED SATURDAY MORNING SNOW DEPTHS RANGING FROM 3 TO 8
INCHES, BUT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE PERIPHERY OF
THAT SNOWPACK STEADILY ERODING THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS STILL
SOME SNOWPACK EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS OF DODGE, WABASHA, AND
TAYLOR COUNTIES, BUT EXPECTING THE COLD INFLUENCE SHOULD
DIMINISH GOING FORWARD AS MELTING ACCELERATES TODAY INTO MONDAY
AND WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHWEST. DEEP MIXING THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY ACROSS WISCONSIN SHOULD FAVOR SEVERAL AREAS REACHING
INTO THE LOW 60S. EVEN STRONGER DEEP MIXING ON MONDAY WILL TAP
INTO 925MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 12-15C, YIELDING HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S FOR MOST. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME
VALLEY LOCATIONS FLIRTING WITH 70. RECORD HIGHS FOR MONDAY 3/10
ARE 67 (1894) AT LSE AND 63 (1977) AT RST, SO THERE COULD EVEN BE
A FEW RECORDS IN JEOPARDY.
INTENSE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY:
A COLD FRONT BRINGS COOLER BUT STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY, BUT THEN ANOTHER WARMUP GETS INTO FULL
SWING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER
ALSO CONTINUES UNTIL FRIDAY, AND THEN THINGS COULD GET RATHER
INTERESTING.
A WELL-ADVERTISED DEEP CYCLONE IS PROGGED TO EJECT OUT OF
COLORADO AND RAPIDLY HOOK NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WITHIN ENSEMBLE FAMILIES, THERE IS STILL
QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE SURFACE LOW'S TRACK AND INTENSITY.
GEFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY YIELDING THE LOWEST CENTRAL PRESSURES
AND THUS STRONGEST SYSTEM. WITH THE 09.00Z DATA, ENS SHOWS A
50% PROBABILITY FOR MSLP <980MB FRIDAY EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS, WHILE GEPS HAS 60% AND GEFS HAS INCREASED TO 90+%. THIS
POTENT SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE OCCLUDING/FILLING AS IT LIFTS INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST, AND ITS TRACK WILL PLACE OUR AREA WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR ON FRIDAY WITH ENS AND GEPS SHOWING LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCES (20-60%) FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 TO EXCEED 70 DEGREES
(GEFS IS NOT SO BULLISH). DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE BRINGS IN A
NARROW RIBBON OF 1+ INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER NORTHWARD FROM THE
GULF, BUT ENSEMBLES ARE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE, KEEPING
PROBABILITIES FOR >1" PWAT GENERALLY UNDER 50%. REGARDLESS, IT'S
LOOKING LIKE MAYBE A SETUP FOR SOME EARLY SEASON INSTABILITY TO
CREEP INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS, THOUGH LOOKING LIMITED TO
<500 J/KG CAPE. WHILE THAT COULD SPELL THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
THUNDERSTORMS, THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER ANY SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE ON THE TABLE THIS FAR NORTH. STILL VERY EARLY TO SAY,
BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE QUITE A BIT OF SHEAR WITH THIS DYNAMIC
SYSTEM, SO ITS POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WILL BE A MAIN FACTOR TO
PIN DOWN IN COMING DAYS. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT SOME MACHINE
LEARNING AND AI CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY IS
HIGHLIGHTING OUR AREA ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF A LOW-END
SEVERE POTENTIAL (GENERALLY 5-15%). RIGHT NOW NOT LOOKING LIKE
A TON OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL, BUT SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE
LOCALIZED HIGHER TOTALS IF STORMS DEVELOP. WE'LL BE CLOSELY
MONITORING HOW MODEL TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM EVOLVE OVER THE
COURSE OF THE WEEK. AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND,
WE COULD GET INTO A BIT OF WRAP-AROUND SNOW ON SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2025
BREEZY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEGUN THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
WILL BEGIN TO WANE AS THE SUN SETS, FALLING BELOW 10KT
OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH SCT TO BKN HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUING TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON,
DECREASING IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST
GUSTS BEGIN AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL MIXING INCREASES.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KURZ
AVIATION...FALKINHAM
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