217
FXUS63 KARX 101108
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
608 AM CDT MON MAR 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE
60S TO AROUND 70. SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON
GIVEN WARM TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
- BRIEF COOL DOWN TUESDAY, THEN ANOTHER WARMING TREND MID TO
LATE THIS WEEK. SOME AREAS MAY REACH THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S ON
FRIDAY.
- MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK UNTIL A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS LATE THIS
WEEK, TRACKING INTO THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR
SEVERE WEATHER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT MON MAR 10 2025
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER UNITED STATES. WITH THE WEST TO EAST FLOW
ALOFT...THIS WILL ADVECT A WARMER AIRMASS INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. BOTH THE GFS/NAM SUGGEST 925MB TEMPERATURES WARMING TO PLUS
10 TO PLUS 14 DEGREES CELSIUS BY 21Z TODAY AND THE LATEST 10.00Z
NAEFS INDICATE STANDARD ANOMALIES OF PLUS 2 DEGREES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO 60S TO AROUND 70. ROCHESTER MINNESOTA
RECORD HIGH TEMP FOR TODAY IS 63 AND LA CROSSE WISCONSIN IS 67.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TODAY AND WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS WILL INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND BE SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY ON RIDGE TOPS AND
OPEN AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND COOLER
AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. 925MB
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN ZERO TO MINUS 5 DEGREES CELSIUS PER
LATEST 10.00Z GFS/NAM. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO
UPPER 40S. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND
WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS BY 18Z TUESDAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FROM THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY IS A DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. LATEST 10.00Z
DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLES ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT CLOSING AND
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO
SHOW CONSISTENCY THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SYSTEM. THE BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
BUILDS OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT TO PRODUCE ANY TYPE OF
SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. AT THIS
TIME...IT IS TO EARLY TO KNOW HOW STRONG STORMS GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AS SURFACE FRONT TRACKS ACROSS FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING...COLDER AIR ADVECTS INTO
REGION AND ANY PRECIPITATION LEFT WILL TRANSITION OVER TO ALL
SNOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND COOL
DOWN INTO THE 30S BY SUNDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT MON MAR 10 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH WIND SPEED
AND DIRECTION BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. AS DIURNAL MIXING GETS INTO
FULL SWING THIS AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO
AROUND 12-20 KTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KTS, PRIMARILY ACROSS
UNSHELTERED AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. OTHERWISE, A BRIEF
LULL IN WINDS WILL BE NOTED THIS EVENING TO AROUND 5-10 KTS BEFORE
WINDS INCREASE AGAIN WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT TO
NORTHERLY AT AROUND 10-12 KTS.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DTJ
AVIATION...NAYLOR
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