035
FXUS63 KARX 101730
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1230 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE
60S TO AROUND 70. SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON
GIVEN WARM TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
- BRIEF COOL DOWN TUESDAY, THEN ANOTHER WARMING TREND MID TO
LATE THIS WEEK. SOME AREAS MAY REACH THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S ON
FRIDAY.
- MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK UNTIL A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS LATE THIS
WEEK, TRACKING INTO THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR
SEVERE WEATHER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT MON MAR 10 2025
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER UNITED STATES. WITH THE WEST TO EAST FLOW
ALOFT...THIS WILL ADVECT A WARMER AIRMASS INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. BOTH THE GFS/NAM SUGGEST 925MB TEMPERATURES WARMING TO PLUS
10 TO PLUS 14 DEGREES CELSIUS BY 21Z TODAY AND THE LATEST 10.00Z
NAEFS INDICATE STANDARD ANOMALIES OF PLUS 2 DEGREES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO 60S TO AROUND 70. ROCHESTER MINNESOTA
RECORD HIGH TEMP FOR TODAY IS 63 AND LA CROSSE WISCONSIN IS 67.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS TODAY AND WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS WILL INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND BE SUSTAINED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY ON RIDGE TOPS AND
OPEN AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND COOLER
AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. 925MB
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN ZERO TO MINUS 5 DEGREES CELSIUS PER
LATEST 10.00Z GFS/NAM. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO
UPPER 40S. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND
WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS BY 18Z TUESDAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FROM THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY IS A DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. LATEST 10.00Z
DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLES ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT CLOSING AND
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO
SHOW CONSISTENCY THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SYSTEM. THE BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
BUILDS OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT TO PRODUCE ANY TYPE OF
SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. AT THIS
TIME...IT IS TO EARLY TO KNOW HOW STRONG STORMS GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AS SURFACE FRONT TRACKS ACROSS FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING...COLDER AIR ADVECTS INTO
REGION AND ANY PRECIPITATION LEFT WILL TRANSITION OVER TO ALL
SNOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND COOL
DOWN INTO THE 30S BY SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2025
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED TO PREVAIL OVER THE PERIOD AT
MOST LOCATIONS, THERE IS A SMALL (10 TO 40%) CHANCE TO SEE MVFR
CEILINGS AROUND 10-15Z TUESDAY MORNING, PARTICULARLY NORTHEAST
OF AN EAU TO 82C LINE. SOUTHWEST OF THIS LINE, INCLUDING AT
RST/LSE, PROBABILITIES ARE 20 PERCENT OR LESS. HOWEVER, VFR
FLIERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT, WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT
COVERAGE WILL CONSTITUTE A CEILING, CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO
HIGH THAT AT LEAST A FEW CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT IN THE 1000-1500
FOOT LAYER DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND HAVE DEPICTED THIS IN
THE TAFS ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE EXPECT WINDS, INITIALLY OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON, TO
TURN CLOCKWISE TO OUT OF THE NORTHWEST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
FOLLOWING A FRONTAL PASSAGE.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DTJ
AVIATION...FERGUSON
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