769
FXUS63 KARX 110403
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1103 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR TO ABOVE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. THESE
WARM TEMPERATURES WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CREATE
SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY BEHIND COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WARMING TREND RETURNS BY MID-WEEK.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH LARGE PLAINS STORM SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
(70-100%) BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN WHETHER SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS FAR NORTH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 151 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2025
WARM TODAY WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
AS OF 1:30 PM, TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA HAD ALREADY WARMED
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THE WORST OF THE MID-LEVEL CLOUD
COVER HAS MOVED SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BUT SOME PATCHY MID/HIGH
CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTS HAVE FINALLY STARTED TO
COME UP FOR AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
IOWA AND SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA. WITH THE CLIMBING TEMPERATURES
AND ATMOSPHERIC MIXING FINALLY STARTING TO COME TO FRUITION, RHS
HAVE BEEN STEADILY DROPPING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH VALUES
RANGING FROM 30-50%. MINIMUM RHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FALL
INTO THE 20-35 PERCENT RANGE WITH THE LOWEST VALUES OCCURRING
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH THE SANDIER SOILS. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS IN
THE 15-25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-35 MPH POSSIBLE IN SOME
LOCATIONS. THE LOWEST RHS AND HIGHEST WINDS LOOK TO BE DISJOINTED
WITH THE HIGHER WINDS EXPECTED WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI WHERE
RHS SHOULD STAY IN THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE. HAVE UNDERCUT THE
MODEL BLENDS ON RH SLIGHTLY AS THE LOCAL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A BIT
MORE EFFICIENT MIXING THAN MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. THE MAIN
HINDRANCE FOR ANY FIRE WEATHER PRODUCT REMAINS THE FINE FUEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. MOST PLACES HAVE SEEN RECENT RAINS AND
SNOWMELT WHICH IS KEEPING THE FUELS SATURATED OVERALL. SOME
ISOLATED GRASSY AREAS HAVE DRIED OUT AT THE SURFACE BUT THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT FUELS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR WILDFIRES
AT THIS TIME. BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S, LIKELY BREAKING
RECORDS AT MANY LOCATIONS. THE DAILY RECORD AT ROCHESTER IS 63
WITH A FORECAST HIGH OF 66 WHILE THE RECORD AT LA CROSSE IS 67
WITH A FORECAST HIGH OF 72. MONTHLY RECORDS SHOULD STAY WELL OUT
OF REACH WITH THE HIGHEST MARCH TEMPERATURES AT ROCHESTER AND
LA CROSSE ARE 82 (1910) AND 84 (1986) RESPECTIVELY.
COOL TUESDAY WITH RETURNING WARMING TREND
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. WINDS BEHIND IT WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST, BRINGING IN A MUCH COLDER AND
DRIER AIRMASS FOR TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FAR CRY
FROM WHERE THEY WILL BE TODAY WITH MOST PLACES SEEING
TEMPERATURES 20-25 DEGREES COLDER IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.
HOWEVER, THIS COOLER WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED OVERALL AS
WINDS SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING FOR WAA
BACK INTO THE AREA. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE BACK
INTO THE 50S TO MID 60S WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EXPECTED BOTH
DAYS. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL HELP TO
BRING EVEN WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH NBM HIGH TEMPERATURES
SOUTH OF THE CHIMNEY IN THE LOWER 70S. ENSEMBLES DIFFER ON HOW
AGGRESSIVE THEY ARE WITH THE WARM AIR INTRUSION. THE GEPS
REMAINS THE MOST BULLISH AND SHOWS A 40-90% CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES
OVER 70 DEGREES ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH VERY LOW
PROBABILITIES NORTH OF I-94. THE EFS IS NOT FAR BEHIND BUT
KEEPS THE EXTENT OF THE 70 DEGREE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH. THE GEFS IS THE LEAST AGGRESSIVE WITH MOST MEMBERS NOT
REACHING THE 70 DEGREE THRESHOLD THIS FAR NORTH. THESE
DIFFERENCES SEEM TO BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE SPEED OF THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL BE DISCUSSED IN MORE DETAIL IN THE
FOLLOWING PARAGRAPH. UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO THIS SYSTEM AND CAN
GET A SOME MORE HIGHER RESOLUTION DATA OR A BETTER CONSENSUS
AMONG THE ENSEMBLES, WILL STICK WITH THE NBM BLEND FOR FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL COOL PRETTY SIGNIFICANTLY
WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 50S AND THE 30S BY SUNDAY.
STORM SYSTEM TO BRING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS (SEVERE?) THIS WEEKEND
AFTER THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY, OUR CONCERN IMMEDIATELY
SHIFTS TO THIS WEEKEND WHERE A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO TREK ACROSS THE CONUS. THERE REMAINS STRONG CONSENSUS AMONG THE
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES THAT A STRONG UPPER LOW AND ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
SURFACE LOW WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BEFORE EJECTING
NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND WILL LIKELY BE MOVING
NORTHEAST INTO MINNESOTA AROUND 12Z SATURDAY. BOTH THE NAEFS AND
THE EFS ARE SHOWING A MSLP OF BETWEEN 977-980 MB WHICH IS 4-5
STANDARD ANOMALIES LOWER THAN THE USUAL MSLP FOR THE EARLY TO
MID MARCH TIMEFRAME. TO GIVE THIS A LITTLE MORE CONTEXT AS TO
HOW UNUSUAL THIS WOULD BE, THE RECORD LOW PRESSURE AT RST FOR
THE MONTH OF MARCH IS 980.4 MB AND 977.0 MB AT LSE (BOTH
OCCURRED ON THE SAME DAY: MARCH 27TH, 1950). STRONG
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CREATE A
SIGNIFICANT WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN US.
HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS SMALL BUT CRUCIAL DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE
AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THIS MOISTURE MAKES IT. THE EFS BRINGS THE
UPPER LOW IN SLIGHTLY SLOWER, ALLOWING MORE TIME FOR MOISTURE
RETURN TO SURGE NORTH INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE
THE GFS IS ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER, WHICH HINDERS MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY AND OVERALL INSTABILITY. BULK SHEAR ACROSS THE
BOARD LOOKS TO BE IN THE 35-50 KT RANGE AS THE LOWER LEVEL
FORCING INCREASES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CAPE IS LOOKING
MEAGER OVERALL WITH MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING MLCAPE VALUES LESS
THAN 500 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA AND SKINNY CAPE PROFILES TO BOOT.
HOWEVER, WITH THE SUBSTANTIAL BULK TRANSPORT AND INCREASED
SYNOPTIC FORCING ACROSS THE AREA, THIS MAY BE ABLE TO OVERCOME
THE CIN AND OVERALL LACK OF INSTABILITY. LOW LEVEL SRH ACROSS
THE ENSEMBLES LOOKS DECENT IN THE 150-250 M2/S2 RANGE. ALL THIS
PUT TOGETHER SHOWS THIS AS A LOW CAPE, HIGH SHEAR EVENT FOR OUR
AREA IN PARTICULAR WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING WINDS AND QLCS
TORNADOES. ALL THIS TO SAY, DETAILS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE AS WE
MOVE INTO A TIMEFRAME WHERE MORE GUIDANCE WILL BECOME AVAILABLE
FOR THIS SYSTEM. SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING/LOCATION OF
KEY FEATURES WILL BE IMPORTANT AS TO WHETHER WE SEE GENERIC
SPRING THUNDERSTORMS OR POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. FAR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA ARE IN THE DAY 5 SLIGHT RISK WITH
ADJUSTMENTS AND REFINEMENTS IN LOCATION EXPECTED OVER THE COMING
DAYS. WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND THE SPRING SEASON JUST
AROUND THE CORNER, NOW IS THE TIME TO START GOING OVER YOUR
SEVERE WEATHER PLANS SO YOU CAN BE READY WHENEVER SEVERE WEATHER
STRIKES.
STRONG SYNOPTIC WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN THE VERY
LOW SURFACE PRESSURE FORECAST BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
WINDS BETWEEN 15-25 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM WITH SIMILAR SPEEDS OUT OF THE WEST EXPECTED ON SATURDAY
AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. GUSTS WILL ALMOST
CERTAINLY BE HIGHER, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI,
BUT THE MAGNITUDE REMAINS TO BE SEEN. I SUSPECT THAT AS WE GET
A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE, FORECASTED GUSTS
WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW FORECAST PACKAGES. RAIN AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX AND THEN SNOW
AS THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IMPACTS OUR
AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. GIVEN THE TRANSIENT NATURE
EXPECTED FOR THE SNOW, WE'RE NOT CURRENTLY FORECASTING IMPACTFUL
TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE PRIMARY FOCUS BEING ON THE
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH VARIABLE MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS FL090-250. LOW CONFIDENCE THAT MVFR CEILINGS WILL
MAKE IT TO THE TAF SITES WITH THE REINFORCING COLDER AIR, THUS
LEFT OUT. THE WIND SHIFT WAS LOCATED AT KFBL AND KMSP, THUS
SOUTHWEST AND WEST WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY IN
THE TAF PERIOD 10 TO 15KTS WITH GUSTS 15 TO 25KTS DECREASING TO
7 TO 15KTS AND SHIFTING TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST THEN SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BARENDSE
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY
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