434
FXUS63 KARX 120547
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1247 AM CDT MON MAY 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE MONDAY, ESPECIALLY
FROM THE I-90 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD. AVOID OUTDOOR BURNING.
- LOW END RAIN CHANCES (20-30%) FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
HIGHER THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AREAWIDE
(40-70%). HIGHEST CHANCES/POTENTIAL QPF NORTH OF I-90.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2025
INTO MID WEEK: WARM (FOR EARLY MAY) WITH LOW END RAIN CHANCES.
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER (SEE FIRE WX DISCUSSION FURTHER BELOW).
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ON TRACK TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE
PLAINS STATES TODAY, SHIFTING OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES FOR WED.
ACROSS THE GULF STATES, A CUTOFF LOW ALSO STILL LOOKS TO WOBBLE
NORTH/NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, MOVING OVER THE TN/OH RIVER
VALLEYS FOR TUE/WED. A VERY STEADY SIGNAL IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE
FOR BOTH WEATHER FEATURES.
MED/LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REMAIN IN FAVOR OF SPIRALLY SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY AROUND THE LOW, SWINGING ACROSS WI TUE/WED. SATURATION COULD
BE A CHALLENGE, BUT RH FIELDS/SOUNDINGS/X-SECTIONS SUGGEST THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH FOR THE FORCING TO WORK WITH. LOW END RAIN CHANCES
STILL WARRANTIED (20-40%). ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY - UPWARDS OF 1000+ J/KG OF MUCAPE. IT'S A SKINNY CAPE
PROFILE, NOT SUGGESTIVE OF STRONGER UPDRAFTS, NOR IS THERE MUCH/IF
ANY SHEAR. A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE, BUT NOTHING LOOKING TOO
RAMBUNCTIOUS.
WHILE THE HOTTEST AIR UNDER THE RIDGE WILL HOLD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/WESTERN MN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, HIGHS OF 80+ DEGREES STILL
LOOK LIKE A VERY GOOD BET FOR MOST/ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THU.
THU INTO THE WEEKEND: GOOD SHOT FOR WETTING RAINS AREAWIDE
THU/THU NIGHT. TURNING COOLER, BUT MORE IN LINE WITH THE
SEASONABLE NORMS.
GEFS AND EPS REMAIN IN LOCKSTEP WITH TAKING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE WEST COAST, DEVELOPING SOMEWHAT OF A NEGATIVE TILT AND
UNDERGOING CYCLOGENESIS AS IT LIFTS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THU. A
MIX OF POSSIBLE LOCATIONS FOR THE SFC LOW, BUT OVERALL TRENDS KEEP
IT NORTH OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
STRETCHES TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH A FAVORED NORTHEAST MOVEMENT ACROSS
THE AREA THU AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECEDES THE
FRONT. UNLIKE RECENT DAYS - MOISTURE SHOULDN'T BE A CONCERN WITH A
GOOD PUSH OF 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT FUNNELING NORTHWARD ALONG
THAT FRONT. PWS ALSO PUSHING 1 1/2". WHILE THIS CURRENT SCENARIO
LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINS FOR THE FORECAST AREA, IT
DOESN'T NECESSARILY MEAN "A LOT" OF RAIN. THE FAVORED TRACK IN THE
BULK OF THE ENSEMBLES WILL DROP HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN
MN/NORTHERN WI FOR THU/THU NIGHT. LATEST EPS MEAN IS AROUND 1/2"
LOCALLY WHILE THE GEFS SITS AT 1/4". THE UPPER 10% OF THOSE
ENSEMBLES CURRENTLY RESTS AT 3/4"+ AND 1/2" RESPECTIVELY...WITH THE
BULK OF THAT NORTH OF I-90.
AS FOR STORM THREAT, UPWARDS OF 2000+ J/KG OF MUCAPE IN THE EPS
PROGGED TO BE AVAILABLE. THE GEFS STILL LOOKING TOO "HOT" AS IT
FORECASTS TDS CLOSER TO 70....5+ DEGREES ABOVE THE EPS AND OTHER
MODELS BLENDS. STILL, AMPLE INSTABILITY FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT THAT
COULD OVERLAP WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR. THERE IS A STRONG-SEVERE STORM
THREAT - DEPENDENT ON TIMING/PLACMENT OF THE VARIOUS WEATHER
ELEMENTS. AND THAT IS NOT CLEAR. A TIME PERIOD TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS EAST FOR THE WEEKEND. BITS OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY/CYCLONIC FLOW/COLD AIR ADVECTION COULD LINGER SHOWER CHANCES
FOR FRI INTO THE WEEKEND.
ALSO POST THAT THU SYSTEM WILL COME MUCH COOLER AIR, ALBEIT CLOSER
TO THE EARLY MAY NORMALS. HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S FOR MOST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT MON MAY 12 2025
EXTREMELY HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. A FEW HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS THE PERIOD GOES ON.
EXPECT WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2025
ABNORMALLY WARM BUT DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY DEEP MIXING
MONDAY AFTERNOON...DRIVING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DOWN INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 20 PERCENTS. IF THIS MIXING IS DEEPER/MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN
FORECAST, LOP OFF A FEW MORE DEGREES IN SFC TDS AND RHS WILL BOTTOM
OUT IN THE TEENS. THAT SAID, THERE ISN'T A LOT OF WIND AT THE TOP OF
THE MIXED LAYER, SO RESULTING GUSTINESS IS LIKELY TO HOLD IN THE
TEENS TO NEAR 20 MPH. WHILE MUCH OF THE AREA HAS GREENED UP, FINE
GRASSES AND OTHER DEAD LITTER/BRUSH REMAIN - AND FFMCS OF 92+ ARE
FORECAST FOR THE BULK OF THE LOCAL AREA. ESSENTIALLY, THE MATERIAL
IS THERE TO QUICKLY CATCH AND HOLD A FIRE. THE WINDS WILL BE A
LIMITING FACTOR FOR QUICK/RAPID SPREAD THAT COULD BE HARD TO
CONTAIN.
PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING FORECAST OFFICES AND STATE
AGENCIES, WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS
BUT HOLD OFF ON FIRE WX WATCHES/RED FLAG WARNINGS (LOCALLY) FOR NOW.
BURNING BANDS IN ARE IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST MN AND PORTIONS OF WI
(ESPECIALLY NORTHERN WI). AVOID/DO NOT DO ANY OUTDOOR BURNING OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RIECK
AVIATION...FERGUSON
FIRE WEATHER...RIECK
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