561
FXUS63 KARX 140541
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1241 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE (15-30%) THIS AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY, MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
- STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TO APPEAR POSSIBLE
THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IN EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING REMAINS LOW,
BUT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WINDS APPEAR POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2025
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY
WITH THE DEPARTING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER TENNESSEE,
EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, VARIOUS SHORTWAVES GET FLUNG
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE
NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH REGARDS TO AMPLITUDE/MAGNITUDE, THESE
SHORTWAVES COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DIURNAL
HEATING SHOULD PROVE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOONS, MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER, BUT AREAS WEST MAY STILL SEE SOME PRECIPITATION. ANYTHING
THAT DOES DEVELOP IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK AS SKINNY CAPE PROFILES
AND WEAK 0-6KM BULK SHEAR GENERALLY 10KTS OR LESS CONTINUE TO BE
DEPICTED IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. EXPECTING A BROAD AREA OF 15-30%
PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION EACH AFTERNOON.
STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY
UNFORTUNATELY, NOT MUCH LIGHT HAS BEEN SHED ON THURSDAY'S FORECAST
TODAY. WHILE CONSENSUS REMAINS SURROUNDING AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES EJECTING INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS AND TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT WHILE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS
AT THE SURFACE IN RESPONSE, GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS
(GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN) AND THEIR ENSEMBLE COUNTERPARTS CONTINUE
TO VARY IN THEIR SOLUTIONS REGARDING SAID TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS.
SYNOPTICALLY, THURSDAY'S ENVIRONMENT LOOKS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF OUR AREA.
WISCONSIN WILL BE SITUATED IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 250HPA JET
STREAK WITH STRENGTHENING WINDS IN THE VERTICAL, COOLING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ALLOWING FOR STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF
7.5-8 C/KM, AND SURFACE MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASING DEWPOINTS INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE 13.00Z LREF SUGGESTS CAPE VALUES OF AROUND
2000 J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK WIND SHEAR OF 40-50KTS, WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
STRONG UPDRAFTS. HOWEVER, THE ORIENTATION OF SAID SHEAR TO THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE STORM MODE THAT IS
REALIZED WITH THIS EVENT. THE 13.00Z LREF SUGGESTS A PARALLEL
ORIENTATION TO THE COLD FRONT INDICATIVE OF UPSCALE GROWTH AND AND A
LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE. HOWEVER, THE 13.12Z OPERATIONAL NAM REMAINS
OPTIMISTIC OF A MORE PERPENDICULAR SHEAR VECTOR INDICATIVE OF A
DISCRETE STORM MODE. GIVEN AMPLE CAPE, STRONG SHEAR, AND A LOW WBZ
HEIGHT, LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE A FAVORED HAZARD WITH THIS EVENT.
SIMILARLY, WITH THE ADDITION OF DRY MID TO UPPER LEVEL AIR ALLOWING
FOR DCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG, DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO A
FAVORABLE HAZARD.
ONE OF THE LIMITING FACTORS TO THIS EVENT IS VARIATIONS AMONGST THE
MODELS IN REGARD TO TIMING OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE 13.06Z
GEFS/GEPS REMAIN THE FASTER SOLUTIONS, BRINGING THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA EARLIER IN THE DAY, GENERALLY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WHEREAS THE 13.06Z EPS BRINGS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE
IMPLICATIONS BEING THAT THE 13.06Z EPS ALLOWS FOR THE MAJORITY OF
OUR AREA TO SEE STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER WHEREAS THE 13.06Z
GEFS/GEPS SUGGESTS AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WOULD BE
FAVORED. THESE VARIATIONS HAVE PLAGUED THE FORECAST OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS.
ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A 700-900HPA WARM
NOSE IN PLACE, CAPPING THE SURFACE ENVIRONMENT FROM THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. IF THIS CAP IS REALIZED, LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF CONVECTION WOULD DEVELOP DESPITE THE FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC
ENVIRONMENT. RECENT MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE ATTEMPTED TO ERODE THIS
FEATURE, THOUGH WOULD LIKE TO SEE A MORE STABLE TREND ONE WAY
OR THE OTHER.
ALL SAID, LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR THE MOST LIKELY
HAZARDS WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP THURSDAY. THE RISK OF TORNADOES IS
DEPENDENT ON THE SHEAR ORIENTATION AND ULTIMATE STORM MODE THAT IS
REALIZED, BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO RULE THEM OUT COMPLETELY AT
THE MOMENT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT WED MAY 14 2025
METAR OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 14.06Z TAF ISSUANCE
SHOW A LONE AREA OF OVC VFR CLOUDS FROM NORTHEAST IOWA THROUGH
WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. A VERY SLOW WESTERLY WHILE WEAKENING
PROGRESSION HAS BEEN WITNESSED OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER,
AS OF 14.0545Z, SOME QUICK POP UP PRECIPITATION CAN BE SEEN
OVER HOUSTON INTO ALLAMAKEE COUNTY ON RADAR IMAGERY. DO NOT
EXPECT THIS TO SPREAD OR PERSIST.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS TUESDAY. DAYTIME
CUMULUS REACH FARTHER HEIGHTS IN SPOTS PROVIDING SPORADIC
PRECIPITATION. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES WHERE
THESE SCATTERED STORMS DO MANAGE TO CONTINUE RISING WITH
LIMITED INSTABILITY. RELATIVELY HIGHER, ALBEIT LOW, CHANCES
PRIMARILY RESIDE ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THEREFORE, HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR TSRA AT
KLSE TAF WITH PROB30 WHILE SMALLER AIRPORTS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN
(E.G., KMDZ) WILL BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO STORMS.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FALKINHAM
AVIATION...JAR
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